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I'm
in the process of figuring out the best way to answer questions in the new blog
format. But in the meantime, I'll touch on a couple of the most-asked questions
from the past few days:
Nolan's status: The 49ers are 2-3.
That's about where you'd expect them to be at this stage. However, the 49ers
were very disappointed in their last two performances.
The
team has three more games - two of which are at home - before the bye week.
They play the Eagles on Sunday, and then travel to the N.Y. Giants on Oct. 19.
Then, it's back home Oct. 26 against the Seahawks.
If
the 49ers are anything resembling a playoff team, they should be able to win
one of these next three games. If they win two of three, they'll be 4-4 at the
break, and in really good position to be contenders in the NFC West.
But
if the club loses its next three, the
The
49ers need some victories - and they need them in a hurry.
Line of succession: Just a guess on a
hypothetical situation, but I'd figure defensive coordinator Greg Manusky would
get the call if the 49ers hit the skids and the
Deadline trades: The general rule is,
don't expect much to happen. The trade deadline is Tuesday, and generally this
day comes and goes without much activity. I've heard nothing that suggests the
49ers are interested in forking over the compensation that would be required to
acquire either T.J. Houshmandzadeh or Roy Williams.
After
all, the 49ers have a lot greater needs than wide receiver. That unit has
actually performed well. The 49ers are averaging 13.3 yards per catch this
season, ranking second in the NFL. Last season, the 49ers averaged 9.8 yards -
31st in the NFL.
Shawntae's spot: The 49ers have not
made a roster move to account for Shawntae Spencer's season-ending injury. This
will be the fourth game the 49ers have played since Spencer sustained his torn
ACL (but it's the third game after an official diagnosis.)
Although
teams are allowed 53 players on the roster, only 45 suit up for games. The
other eight spots include a No. 3 quarterback and seven players who are either
injured or have not won a role in the top 45 for game days. The 49ers have not
replaced Spencer because nobody they could add to the 53-man roster would suit
up for games anyway.
So,
it appears, the 49ers will wait until an injury creates a situation where a
roster spot needs to be filled or they're in danger of losing one of their
practice-squad players. For instance, if some team wants to sign running back
Thomas Clayton - or anyone else - to a contract, the 49ers can hold onto that
player by offering a spot on their own 53-man roster.
Niners draft: I'm no draft guru, but
I have to admit that I was not at all surprised the 49ers passed on DeSean
Jackson. I thought Kentwan Balmer would go sooner in the draft, and it was no
big surprise that the 49ers took him at No. 29. The Chilo Rachal pick was not
quite as obvious. Time will tell how those turn out.
Here's
the thing that scared me about
The
thing I like about Balmer is that he plays hard. He does not lack for effort.
Right now, he's raw and he has a lot to learn. But I think he'll do what's
necessary to become a good player. He might not be great, but I think in time
he'll be good.
*
* *
The
Eagles also have a 2-3 record after losing two consecutive games. In the NFC
East, that means they have an uphill battle to get back in the race.
Quarterback Donovan McNabb said he is embarrassed with the way the Eagles are
playing.
"It's not too late to turn it around
now," McNabb writes on his blog on Yardbarker.com. "But to do so, we have to be
embarrassed enough as a team to do something about it. . . . I'm better than
this and I'll prove it. I know my team is too. Now we have to prove it."
I truly hope everyone uses this forum constructively. After all, I enjoy the feedback, criticism, opinions and insights from those who comment as much as anyone.
* * *
Why wold York fire Nolan mid season, even if we do go into the bye 2-6? The teams that change coaches in the middle of the season usually never do any better than they were doing before the change. If your going to make a change do it at the end of the season and not at the beginning. Also I think if we do make a change mid season we have to give the reins to either Martz, or Singeltary.
It's not a slam dunk either way. I'm saying that if the 49ers should head into the bye week on a five-game losing streak, the Yorks will have to consider making a change. Heck, the team has lost just two in a row, and I sense the public is losing patience faster than ever. The Yorks -- with input from Scot McCloughan -- will determine whether they believe the team is heading in the right direction. --Matt M.
Hey Matt, nice update on the site, very cool! It would be nice to see the 9ers win 3 in a row to know what its feels like and hopefully continue a win streak. Im glad they picked K-Balm instead of D-sean to bolster the line, besides some team is going to give him a good popcorn. They cant let McNabb get confortable back there, you know hes gonna be on fire, just got to put it out. D-sean is going to try to take it to the house on SP maybe they should put Nate out there.
Well said Matt, this forum is a fantastic place to share our opinions on our team and very much appreciated.
By the way, I'm extending an invite to those of you out here in the East for the Giants game next week. Matt you know the offer stands for you as well. I'll be there representing at the 12C tailgate and being abused by lots of Giants fans, my friend and host not included. So feel free to swing by and lend some support, I'll try to have a few beers on hand also.
Here's your chance to write a road tailgate review Matt? Pix for the new blog site!
Something else I've quietly wondered about?
A secret desire to be the Best Dressed HC at the Senior Bowl?
Ladd-Peebles-Nolan Stadium?
The Mike 'Nolan Bend and Don't Take a Break Defense'. This game presents another example of a visiting team that is dinged at key positions and, if properly planned for, can be beaten on friendly soil.
Martz needs to employ a little West Coast flair to keep the pass rush honest and not get our offense into predictable passing situations.
Philly can be had, the question is whether Nolan can change it up.Chances are they won't pound the ground game with Westbrook hurting, so Buckhalter is the obvious focal point, along with the passing plan.
Can we stop the deep threat?
If we can keep the ball and control T.O.P., we can and should, have a better then average opportunity to win this game, and in doing so, build some valuable momentum for the GMen in NJ.
This game SCREAMS for adjustments to business as usual, let's see how Nolan plays it? Come out prepared to RUN until they buy it. Balance the attack and take shots once you sell the running attack.
Hey Matt. How has Mark Roman's play been? Is it bad enough that it warrants a change? And is Balmer a chance to get bulkier to play NT or would they be best suited to having Soap inside and play him at DE?
Matt, could you elaborate on why you think that Manusky would be first in line to "the throne"?? In my somewhat less than infinite wisdom, I'm thinking Singletary, or even Martz. Not saying I would prefer those 2 over Greg, just that I though Singletary was "earmarked" as an HC in waiting, as it were, and MM has previous. Thanks
Nolan made his career in the NFL as a defensive coach. Most of the money he has spent rebuilding the 9ers has been spent on acquiring defensive players. This is the fourth year of rebuilding the personnel and instituting his scheme/philosophy. Manny Lawson's knee is the only major injury to affect the defense in the last year or so (knock on wood). At this point with %25 of the season gone, the 9ers rank 22nd in total defense, 23rd against the pass, 19th against the run. IMO the problem is scheme, not players mistakes. The 9ers gave up 30 points to a Seahawk team with off-the-street WRs, and to the Patriots who had been beaten decisively by Miami two weeks before. Nolan's defensive philosophy is 'read and react' when it should be 'aggressively impose our will'. I can't imagine a George Seifert defense, or players like Ronnie Lott, Charles Haley, Michael Carter, or Bryant Young, just to name a few, doing anything other than being aggressive and imposing their will on the opposition. Forget the many problems with the offense over the last four years, if a decision is forthcoming on Nolan, it should be predicated on his failure to build a top ten defense. I have tried to give him the benefit of the doubt, and there have been many other problems on and off the field on his watch, but IMO, the responsibility and inability to field a shut-down defense is inexcusable and falls directly and irrefutably on Nolan and his philosophy.
Matt what is your opinion on this story - .....The most famous Mike Nolan story, before he became coach of the 49ers, was about vanilla ice cream.....Washington Redskins owner Dan Snyder, the story goes, placed a carton of vanilla ice cream in Nolan's office, where it was allowed to melt into a sticky mess. The mean-spirited prank underscored the owner's criticism of his defensive coordinator's read-and-react philosophy, which Snyder had termed "vanilla."....That story was considered just another in the Snyder-as-meddling-owner file. But it's worth remembering now. Because Nolan's philosophy and his defense's inability to make the big stop and get off the field — all of that is bringing back the images of vanilla ice cream....
For those of you that are curious here are the stats and success rate of "in" season coaching changes at the NFL level:
Since 1930, there have been 85 cases of an NFL team changing coaches in midseason. Only three (3) times have those changes resulted in that team making the playoffs. But zero times since 1961. Granted, some of those 85 midseason switches have been modestly successful. Four have resulted in .500 finishes. And five others — in addition to the three above — have led to winning records but no playoff appearance. The most recent example was eight years ago. Bobby Ross resigned as the Detroit Lions' coach nine games into the 2000 season and Gary Moeller finished with a 9-7 record. And no playoff spot.
All things considered, the 9ers are about where they are projected to be. Before the season no one thought that the 9ers would beat the PATS or the Saints, so the last two games have gone as planned. Now, the manner in which they lost is disconcerning. No pressure on Brees equals our secondary gets schooled, couple that with red zone turnovers and no team can overcome that. That Pats game was very winable. We moved the ball well in the first half. Ahh, but then came halftime. Advantage Pats. Coach Billy B made adjustments to his defense. Force JT to his left by overloading the right with blitzes. Result, 9ers go one for nine on third downs. Coach Nolan at halftime, "Stay the course men" (his favorite saying). NO ADJUSTMENTS!!!. Result, 9ers stay vanilla on D and Pats roll to victory.
Matt Maiocco watch out, Mike in SF 2 is after your job! Reno Roy1, excellent post, spot on, well written.
If they lose the next 2 of course you fire Nolan. Sends a message to the team and Scott Mc as well. Make Mike S. the HC for the rest of the season but then you start again from scratch. And the Yorks want a new stadium??? Are they related to the Bidwell's by any chance? Good Grief......As Tom Hanks said in the movie Saving Private Ryan.......FUBAR...just FUBAR.
Matt, understanding that all bets are off if the Yorks decided to let Nolan go at the bye week but the choice of Manusky seem curious. Obviously Martz has head coaching experience or they could hand the team over to Singletary, give him an 8 game audition so to speak and not overly disrupt the coordinators.
Hi Matt!
In the news today, Holmgren ripped into his team and McNabb held a meeting...both were meant to stop losing.
Have the Niners had any impromptu meetings to highten the priority to win?
First of all thanks for all your sterling work on a topic so near and dear to all of us. I know you get paid to do it but it’s clear that you have a passion for your job. Here’s some unsolicited opinions stated as facts.
Yes we are 2-3 at this moment and unfortunately it looks as if we will be 2-4 after this weekend. Much like the Patriots last week (coming off their 1st loss in Since the über bowl and a Bye week) the Beagles are pis*ed off and have a little extra motivation to pound out a victory because of their recent disappointments. I'd say bad timing for us. I am told it is bad Karma to wish ill health for others but if Westbrook wants to take his time healing I wouldn't mind. The difference with him in the game or not is huge for the guys in green.
As to Nolan and all the bashing that's going on right now... Well the team is markedly better than it was last year. The stats show it and it’s there to see on the field. In fact, or my opinion rather, maybe because the problems are fewer some of them stick out more. As I see it deez-r-dem: We can't stop the run and we can't seem to keep people out of our backfield at critical times. This means teams like the New Cheatin' Patriots can beat us with Matt Cassell by running the ball a buh-zillion times down our throats. The Fleagles will try do this to with Buckhalter and Westbrook. Justin Smith is all over the place but he and the linebackers can't do it all. Yes the pass rush has improved but we are less than stout agin' the run. Yes, the DB’s could play better too- especially the safeties.
Random quick thoughts: They should see how the team does before they fire Nolan. We have a tough schedule this year. They might be close. That being said if Bill Cower suddenly developed an affinity for fine wine and elegant cheese we should lure him here. But does his style of football fit the Left Coast? If our O-line doesn't improve we should expect more interceptions from O'Sully and more of his flitting about like an amped meth-head playing human frogger on 6th and Market. It's time to put Roman on the Scrap heap where we got him several years ago. His performance in New Orleans was abysmal- missed tackles and constantly out of position. We will never really win with J.T. He’s like someone you hook up with after a bad breakup- the term rebound comes to mind. If they fire Nolan mid-season they should fill in with Singletary, maybe Martz but not Manusky (not that I think he can’t handle it- I just don’t see Martz listening to him).
Is Vernon Davis just a fast Ken MacAfee (1st round 1978)? Alex- oof. Not sure of the salary cap implications but if we can afford it we should give him a chance at the starting QB job next year. His career has been vexed so far and he does have talent and it’s not all his fault- even though he is a bit of a baby.
I've been a big Nolan supporter and I think he's a good guy, but I'm getting more and more frustrated watching this talented defense struggle.
I question who is really at fault... Sure, Nolan is a defensive coach, but even Manusky stated he (Manusky) calls all the plays. What Manusky doesn't really say is can he make the ultimate decision on the game day scheme, or is it up to Nolan's call?
This reminds me of 2006 when Nolan took over the play calling for the struggling DC, Billy Davis. The defensive play improved quite a bit... Will Nolan take over the play calling for Manusky if the defense continues to struggle? Will it improve if Nolan does take over?
I think Nolan is giving Manusky every chance to succeed, but if we play the same soft defense against the Eagles, I expect something to change ASAP. IF Nolan is eventually fired and Manusky is promoted to interim HC, it would be really interesting to see how the defense plays at that point... That should tell us a lot...
Either way, if we don't make 8-8, I think I'm ready for a new HC (and no thanks to Martz).
Matt, is your opinion that a 2-6 start would make the Yorks think about a shake up based on some inside information you've heard?
I just don't think the Yorks have any idea of what to do and that would be too bold for them.
Matt- I am in Cincinnati today and it's all over the radio.....TJ H. of the Bengals to the Niners. What is that all about?
TheMildCat..."They should see how the team does before they fire Nolan. We have a tough schedule this year. They might be close."
I think the bye week is ample time to gauge how the team does. Nolan has been given over three years and if we're 3-5 or 2-6 at the bye, he should be gone. Nolan has the reputation of being defensive minded coming from Baltimore but most of us are not aware that he took over as the Raven's DC, AFTER they've already won their Super Bowl. I think he's given too much credit due to the fact that the Ravens already had their personnel in place. Nolan was not responsible for getting those pieces in place.
Randy in Santa Clara...If Nolan remains until the end of the season, he will probably throw Manusky under the bus just like he did Hostler. I think Munusky makes the calls, but I highly doubt that he's not influenced by Nolan's conservative mentality. It's like a parent giving their child the keys to a new car, only to sit in the passenger seat and tell him where to drive. In other words, I don't think Munusky is given the freedom to make his own defensive calls without Nolan breathing down his neck. One thing that bothers me about Nolan is the fact that he has never opened his mouth and admitted fault. To him it's always about "staying the course" and "we didn't execute today". I'm no longer buying into his BS.
Hey Marc in NJ - I'm taking the trip East for the Niners/Giants game. Where will you be tailgating? And I need a great restaurant for Saturday night, if you had to pick one place to eat Saturday night, where would it be? Thanks.
I won't be at all surprised if the Niners lose the next two. Those are just better teams. I just hope they can be competitive, especially on the defensive side. These long, time-consuming drives with multiple third-down conversions are really alarming in their regularity. But they should win at home against Seattle and thus 3-5 at the bye.
I can see changing head coaches mid-season if the coordinators are being hampered by Nolan through interference on scheming and game-planning. Otherwise, the Yorks may as well wait until the offseason to bring in a new coach. Changing mid-season is so disruptive and there really won't be time to implement sweeping changes.
Other than the head coach,the weakest parts of the 49ers are both lines. Picking linemen was not a mistake. Only time will tell if they picked the right linemen, although past history tells us that this braintrust does not have a good batting average with either the draft or free agents.
As we see with the addition of Martz, a good coach can make a very big difference. Nolan was clearly outcoached in the New England game. The 49ers started out great on offense and so-so on defense. After the first quarter, New England handled the 49er offense, for the few minutes it was on the field, and TOOK APART the 49er defense. The Patriots adjusted to the game and the 49ers didn't. They can't stop the run and have been too rigid in their defensive philosophy to do anything about it. Mariucci was exactly the same. Could not or would not adjust during the game.
Matt,
Why do you feel the Yorks would promote Manusky over say Singletary?
Hey Matt. Nolan speaks often about having the best players on the field at al times. Does that mean Donald Strickland and Terrell Brown are better players than Lawson and Haralson? Imo, Haralson is our second best linebacker, and by far our best pass rusher. He should be playing all three downs. Whats your take?
I think that if the Yorks fire Nolan mid-season, they should not hire an interim coach. They should find their coach of the future. If they wait until the end of the season, next year will be mostly shot with learning the new coaches schemes. Get him in this year and we will be ready to go next season. Let's face it - if they fire Nolan, this season is over anyway.
Matt, I agree that deadline deals are unlikely, but if we were to do one ,the one I'd like to see is us selling, not buying.
Specifically, I'd like to see us ship Aubreyo Franklin back to Baltimore (they have lost their 1st and 3rd string NTs, and while the 2nd stringer is playing well, they'll want someone to rotate in who already knows their system). I'd think we could probably get a day 2 pick (perhaps a 5).
This would leave us thin on d-line in theory, but we could move Isaac back to NT and get Balmer more reps at LDE. The line is not working as is, anyway, and its time for a shakeup. With a 1st invested in Balmer and a big deal for Sopo, Franklin is obv the one not in the long term plans. So lets do this now. Our line play vs the run can't actually get worse.
It should be obvious by now, Singletary has not proven to anyone in the league he's head coach material. At this point, if the 49ers don't hire a solid young contender with a great reputation, they'll need to hire a big budget guy the way the Cowboys did when they hired Parcells. If it was up to me, I'd wait til the end of the season, fire McNolan, spend the money to bring in Holmgren as top football executive and let him find the coaching talent. There's no one else in the 49er organization that has the talent or expertise to pick an excellent coach.
9erDino - Great post, well written
Why wold York fire Nolan mid season, even if we do go into the bye 2-6? The teams that change coaches in the middle of the season usually never do any better than they were doing before the change. If your going to make a change do it at the end of the season and not at the beginning. Also I think if we do make a change mid season we have to give the reins to either Martz, or Singeltary.
Because Jag, if we don't fire Nolan SOONEr, we are showing the people of Santa Clara how inept the team is and they prefer to lose more then win. Santa Clara has the stadium ballot in 09 and status quo only means we will lose this team if people don't pass or bother to vote for the stadium.
Matt Maiocco, do you know about the stadium ballot in Santa Clara in 09 and if it does not pass, are the 49ers doomed for LA? I'm not being a wise guy, I just want to know what happens next in 09 if this stadium ballot does not pass.
Whether it's rrong or not, in the words of Lowell Cohn, a 2 and 6 season is NOT as good as a 2 and 6 season LAST YEAR! To finish with an identical record or below .500 this year, a coach should be fired SOONER, not LATER.
Mike in SF: Contact me via Email about Damon Bruce. Thanks.
Lets try Mike Martz has head coach this year to see if he has anything to offer. Rather than offering him a job in 09. That we know whether we should franchise JTO or sign him for a long term contract after the season ends.
I don't see how hiring Manusky helps our team as well. We need somebody with head coaching experience.
Mike in SF #2, thanks for the info. but please consider that if a Head Coach is fired midseason, it is probably because the team's record is so bad that he can't salvage the season! With that being said, you can't successfully judge the benefit of a midseason coaching change simply by looking at whether the team made the playoffs or ended with a winning record. For example: If the Niners are 2-6 at the bye week and make a coaching change, they could win 5 of their next 8 games (which is pretty good), and still end up with a record of 7-9. That looks bad on paper, but it would be a decent improvement in my book and would justify the midseason firing. Matt, your thoughts.
I think the public is losing patience earlier than ever before due to the patented Mike Nolan 6-7-8 game losing streak. I've never been a Nolan fan. I think he's probably a good man but he's definitely a terrible head coach. A change at midseason may not make the team better this year but it will send a message to the fans and players that this product is not acceptable to team management.
Voice of Reality, I'm tailgating with Giants Fans (of course) in the 12C parking section. Literally under the maker pole, so look for us there. I'm from Central NJ and am not real familiar with the local places around the Meadowlands, but fear not plenty of others in our group will be happy to help. Stop by on game day, I'm hoping Matt will make a return trip also, he popped by last year for a bite.
Voice of Reality, I'm tailgating with Giants Fans (of course) in the 12C parking section. Literally under the maker pole, so look for us there. I'm from Central NJ and am not real familiar with the local places around the Meadowlands, but fear not plenty of others in our group will be happy to help. Stop by on game day, I'm hoping Matt will make a return trip also, he popped by last year for a bite.
Voice of Reality, I'm tailgating with Giants Fans (of course) in the 12C parking section. Literally under the maker pole, so look for us there. I'm from Central NJ and am not real familiar with the local places around the Meadowlands, but fear not plenty of others in our group will be happy to help. Stop by on game day, I'm hoping Matt will make a return trip also, he popped by last year for a bite.
Matt- question regarding the impression i have gotten ever since Nolan took over. There seems to be a real sense of "smug-ness" that eminates from from a lot of "football" people in the NFL TV media. Almost like they snicker and take some kind of pleasure when Nolan has come into rough going. Do you sense that? Almost an ill-will towards him indiviually. I've heard that he is cocky or arrogant, but I have also heard that he is one of the good-guys and was always pretty straight-up with people? Also, before coming to SF, was he regarded as an above average coach/coordinator among coaches/players in the league?
I know that since the Niners spent the better part of 20 years wiping their jocks with the "have-nots" and the "never-wills" noses, there has been a considerable hint of resentment in the tone and commentary of several so called analysts and game-day crews. (Tim Green is the prime example, you could hear the disdain for the 49ers in every comment when he was doing the color commentary of niner games, I actually was waiting for him to outright yell "Yeah!!! Whooo-Hooo!!!" when they came up short.) But for years guys like Howie Long, Chris Collinsworth (I can kinda see that one), Bommer Esiason, etc. have always been quick to short-change or take underhanded jabs when the 9ers have faultered or been overmatched going into a game. Guys like Terry B. and Jimmy J. don't seem to have a hang-up, since they were just as successful, but Howie has rings? I think he's just an ass on-air. Interviews he seems ok... oh screw generic-ass Radio-Shack Howie... anyways, sorry about that... but even Tom Jackson who you can tell has a bad niner taste in his mouth can be professional and objective on air.