The burden of proof was on Mike Singletary when he took the interim position on Oct. 20.
Many in the organization felt the 49ers had to hire an offensive-minded head coach at the end of the season, so the club would not run the risk of repeating one of the big problems from the Mike Nolan era.
So Singletary had to prove to the decision-makers why they should not hire someone with an offensive background.
The general consensus is that Singletary won the job. Sure enough, at this point it would be a very unpopular decision to hire anybody else.
Singletary is 4-4 in eight games. But let's give him a mulligan for that first game when he took over as coach just six days before the Oct. 26 meeting with the Seahawks. So, for our purposes, we'll say he has a 4-3 record as head coach. Is that good enough to be considered a slam dunk?
Let me go on record as saying Singletary should get the job. But there are still a lot of unknowns that will come with Singletary's anticipated appointment to the permanent job.
Aside from all the intangible qualities he has brought to the 49ers, I'm trying to figure out where the 49ers are better significantly better statistically since he took over. I have come to the conclusion that the most important definable area in which Singletary's teams have been better than Nolan's team is on third downs:
Third-down offense
Under Nolan: 27.6 percent success
Under Singletary: 44.6 percent success
Third-down defense
Under Nolan: 40.6 percent failure
Under Singletary: 35.5 percent failure
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If you asked me where else the 49ers have improved, I'd point to turnovers, too. For these statistical purposes, let's use the 7 ½ games with J.T. O'Sullivan at quarterback against the 7 ½ games with Singletary's man, Shaun Hill, at QB.
But the actual difference was not as dramatic as I'd figured. The 49ers committed 20 turnovers with O'Sullivan, and 14 with Hill. On the giveaway-takeaway scale, the 49ers were minus-10 before the QB change, and minus-7 after the change. Either way, it's not good.
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My good friend, Bee-rows, has reported Mike Martz will be fired and defensive coordinator Greg Manusky will be retained under Singletary.
Parting ways with Martz doesn't seem like such a slam dunk to me, but I'm also not sure anybody would think of him as a long-term answer. Martz is an incredible offensive mind, no doubt. But Singletary has a chance to make his own hire. And instead of constantly telling Martz what he wants, he can pick someone with whom he is already on the same page.
Singletary said he liked the offense the 49ers ran in 2006 under Norv Turner. And it makes a lot more sense to hire someone who has already proven himself as a coordinator.
By all reports, Turner will return as Chargers head coach. That's why I think it's a great idea to do the homework on Scott Linehan, a success as a coordinator but whose head-coaching stock is as low as it can get after his failed run as Rams head coach.
On the other side of the ball, Manusky was given the autonomy to streamline the 49ers' defense. Justin Smith was asked to do less; Parys Haralson was given more playing time; and the 49ers have stayed with a 3-4 scheme on base downs. As a result, the 49ers' defense has risen from 23rd in the league before the coaching change to 16th in total yards allowed.
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Looks like we'll have a busy few days after the finale Sunday. Can't wait to see how stuff unfolds!
Hi Matt. I hope that you had a good holiday.
I do think that Singletary should get the job. Since he took over, there has been a noticeable improvement in the intensity of the players. It is fun to sit in the stands and see how aggressively they go after it.
One thing that I think I have noticed about Martz is that he really isn't that good at calling plays in the red zone. It seems that he goes to an all passing attack instead of at least trying to pound it in. Even if he tried runs on first and/or second down, it would have a chance to set up some of the passes. But it doesn't seem to happen.
It looks like management is going to do the right thing after the season. But I just have this dread that they will find a way to mess it up.
Matt: Before this blog was updated to its current format you used to have a link to a site that kept an updated NFL Draft order. What was that site?
That link is no longer active. But here is the current draft order (without making adjustments for playoff teams):
W-L Strength of schedule
1 Lions 0-15 .558
2 Chiefs 2-13 .535
3 Rams 2-13 .535
4 Bengals 3-11-1 .560
5 Seahawks 4-11 .498
6 Raiders 4-11 .521
7 Browns 4-11 .573
8 Packers 5-10 .513
9 Jaguars 5-11 .535
10 S.F 49ERS 6-9 .456
11 Bills 7-8 .450
12 Texans 7-8 .515
13 Chargers 7-8 .517
14 Broncos 8-7 .454
15 Redskins 8-7 .481
16 Cardinals 8-7 .490
17 Saints 8-7 .492
18 Eagles 8-6-1 .523
19 Jets 9-6 .465
20 Bears 9-6 .469
21 Buccaneers 9-6 .479
22 Cowboys 9-6 .498 (Traded to Lions)
23 Vikings 9-6 .508
24 Dolphins 10-5 .458
25 Falcons 10-5 .460
26 Patriots 10-5 .479
27 Ravens 10-5 .519
28 Panthers 11-4 .492 (Traded to Eagles)
29 Colts 11-4 .494
30 Steelers 11-4 .523
31 Giants 12-3 .498
32 Titans 13-2 .452
Nice work, Matt. I'm officially on the Chan Gailey as coordinator bandwagon, assuming Herm Edwards is going to be fired, but Linehan is a decent option.
Two interesting things I noticed while researching Linehan is that his teams tend to have a high number of offensive penalties, which may or may not be a reflection on his coaching.
Second, Linehan has a strong relationship with John L. Smith.
Perhaps, he would be bias towards Alex if he received the job.
Here's a statistic where Singletary is significantly better: Not counting the Seattle mulligan, Nolan was .286 and Singletary is .571 so far, no worse than .500 for the year.
And that's with the same players, the same coordinators, and if my memory serves me all but one of the same position coaches.
I said it before the season and nobody believed me but I'm more and more vindicated by the week: the talent wasn't the problem. The X's and O's weren't the problem. All the pieces were there. The problem was that there was no keystone, no linchpin. There was no clear, firm leader to bring all those pieces together, keep everyone on the same page and get the collection of talent working together as a team.
That's what Singletary became. The anchor, the organizer. He brought that missing piece which allowed the team to start working cohesively and start playing to their abilities. And there's no statistic for that except win/loss percentage.
Allowing Manusky to coach has been the big difference on defense. He immediately realized Franklin is not a 2 gap player, and got Harelson and Lawson on the field. More importantly, he calls a good game especially on third down
Good point on Martz's play calling in the red zone. That's one area where the Niner's offense has noticeably struggled in recent games, settling for field goals in several instances where a TD was within reach. I don't know if there's any data to back this up, but I wonder if this is because past Martz offensives have traditionally been successful at scoring TDs on plays that start outside the red zone or maybe between the 15 and 20 yard lines. I wonder if there's a percentage breakdown of the types of plays that resulted in TDs on the Rams when he was there.
Matt I was wondering if you had access to third down stats like avg distance to go. Like under Nolan the opp. avg third down was 4 yards and under Sing it was 5 yards. Seems like a valuable piece of information to have in this puzzle. With such a higher success % on offense, I assume that would correlate to a smaller yardage to go on offensive third downs, but to know for sure would be lovely. Happy holidays.
Wrote a comment about Martz (who I like a lot) on other column. But.....Chan....freaking....Gailey? Why? What modern team (except the Ravens who had one of the GREATEST DEFENSES IN THE HISTORY OF THE NFL) have ever won big without DYNAMIC offenses? Chan Gailey? Morre conservative snooze on offense? Guys, I'm almost 58 years old! I don't want to be on social security before we have a great offense again. Geez!! I guess Linehan had more success (and an owner would have to be brain dead to hire this guy as HC again....of course that might ensure that hiring). Turner will stay in SD. Any youngish OC who turns out to be very good will be a HC candidate quickly. There is no real stability anymore in NFL except for GM and HC, so they have to be VERY good. Want stability? Keep Singletary AND Martz. Keep Alex and draft a young QB who might be great some day.
The fear of smash mouth football is overblown. When you look around the league all NFL offensive are designed pretty similarly. I don't know of any team that runs the option or lines up with three tight ends and a full back every down. No team plans to be inept on offense, but many teams fail to be successful due to poor personnel or injury.
I respect Mike Martz. However, Singletary values balance and efficiency on offense, while Martz is more of a high risk, high reward type. You can argue the merits of both visions, but in this scenario Martz and Singletary just don't see eye to eye and that's OK.
As far as why I like Chan Gailey, he is running the spread offense in KC! Not that I'm and advocate of the spread, but I'm impressed that Gailey is creative enough and a good enough coach to adapt on the fly and implement a system that is keeping his team competitive.
^ That's not creativity. It's desperation. He's been dealt a terrible hand.
Just a general comment vis a viz defensive third downs, winning percentage, etc.: It seems to me that if the team had had a consistent pass rushing threat (Charles Haley,where are you?) and the 4th quarter solidity and improvement that Singletary (and Hill) seem to have brought about, from the beginning of the year, we would have won at LEAST several more games, be in the playoffs, and be reasonably dangerous, if not quite in the top tier. It is not clear to me that the offense needs dramatic change--more a matter of eliminating the occasional wacky calls and turnovers, while keeping the field stretched with receivers who can go deep at opportune times. I really hope these guys are not going to have to learn an entirely new offensive terminology and system AGAIN--IMHO there is (much) more important stuff to work on.
That's my point. Gailey was dealt a terrible hand, but has managed to coordinate a competitive offense, adjusting to the strengths to Tyler Thigpen.
There are plenty of desperate teams out there, Cincinnati; Cleveland; Detroit; Oakland; Seattle, and only the Chiefs figured out a way to move the ball.
KC's offensive averages more ypg than the 9ers and has fewer sacks, as well as fewer turnovers. Which offense appears more desperate?
Matt,
Are there any head coaches currently in the league who have never held a coordinator position? Sing is obviously a great motivator and leader but is that enough from a head coach? I still have reservations about Sing but I do think he's done well in some of his decision making. Forcing Hill on Martz was the right call but any bonehead could see that was needed. Some of Sing's in-game decision making has been questionable to say the least.
I wonder if the 9ers are considering Sing as a 1 year stop-gap until Holmgren completes his hiatus commitment to his family. If Sing is great then you have your coach. If he's terrible then you gave the guy his shot and now you have a great coach ready to step in and right the ship. Far-fetched I know but it could have entered frat boy and McG's discussions.
Scott Linehan, huh? Interesting. I would not object.
Q: Matt, Are there any head coaches currently in the league who have never held a coordinator position? Sing is obviously a great motivator and leader but is that enough from a head coach?
My response: John Harbaugh (Ravens) was DBs coach and, before that, was special-teams coordinator for nine seasons; Herm Edwards (Chiefs) was assistant head coach/defensive backs with Tampa before getting the job with the Jets; Tony Sparano (Dolphins) was assistant head coach/offensive line with the Cowboys; Rod Marinelli (Lions) was d-line coach; I don't think Tom Coughlin (Giants) ever served in the NFL as a coordinator but he had head-coaching experience in college; and, finally, Jim Zorn (Redskins) was QB coach. --Matt M.
My OC choice: Ernie Zampese
Out...
I suppose Coach Martz' departure was/is inevitable -I find that lamentable! I concur with you Matt this team is close to playoff caliber but can only wonder if starting from scratch with yet another OC will pose another setback(and I see I am not alone in that opinion!).Would the 49ers have been so close in the Arizona game or come from behind last week for instance without Mike Martz-it is a moot point but one worth considering ?! Maybe it is purely projection on my part but it seems as if Coach Singeltary balances Coach Martz' more careless leanings and Coach Martz reciprocates to a head coach who"would run every time".Don't get me wrong I love Coach Singletary-but can only wonder how good this team would be with another year under Coach Martz' system and draft pick or two .Ah, life in the NFL! Anyroad 'here is to a big win against the Redskins-GO NINERS!
I don't like/dislike Mike Martz. I think since Singletary took over he's toned down the O rather well and while we don't lead the league in drops, lots of his plays could have been realized had the execution been there. He can only draw up the call, it's not his fault if Vernon shortarms, J Hill runs the wrong route or S Hill underthrows the ball.
That said/written, If you don't have a solid offensive line (which we don't) you'll inevitably struggle in the Red Zone. Since the field is shortened the defense is coming lights out at the QB and (assuming we're passing) unless the o-line can hold their blocks, TE's and RB's can pick their blocks up successfully, and the QB has time to get in sync with the WR and the ball is caught, you're going to rack up field goals galore. I think we've managed to do all the things needed to score a TD like 3 times this year?
Martz deserves part of the blame, of course but I'm also looking at McCluless who needs to get us the horses to be in the race. D Foster and B Simms have whiffed on FAR more pass-rushers than I care to recall.
And when we're on the road inside the oppsing team's RZ, all it takes is one false start to move us out of TD range and into field goal range.
People will quickly point to the success we had when Norval was running the O but considering Jonas and L Brown were here and both healthy, the rest of our line was solid, everything else (running/passing game, TOP, RZ-O) would not be a significant problem).
It all starts with the line. Again, I'll accept that Martz is to blame for some of it but it's hardly all his fault.
Matt, I do understand that the team has improved under coach sing but here's some food for thought. Do you think Tampa Bay's Super Bowl win had as much to do with coach dungy as it did with coach gruden? Now, nolan is no dungy but lets be fair. Lets acknowledge the fact that coach sing is taking the team to the next level, as coach gruden did, but the foundation was poured by coach nolan as it was with coach dungy. Do you agree/disagree? I'll be interested in your thoughts around this subject. Maybe you can write an article about it???
Matt, thanks for a look at the statistical analysis about what is different under Singletary. Interestingly, I think we are somewhat surprised by the fact that the difference is clearly perceptable and palpable but doesn't jump out at you statistically. I'm reminded of Singletary's answer in one of his earliest press conferences (perhaps his first) when he replied to a questioner that he was going to do what was necessary - or words to that effect - and suggested that perhaps the questioner could identify the differences later. The differences to me are that the team is more cohesive, more competitive, seems to be singularly focused and has bought in across the board - not just in words but as demonstrated by their play. I think it speaks volumes that Shaun Hill says he got support through his problems last week by all segments of the team. Singletary's strength is that he has the ability to make the whole exceed the sum of the parts. In all sports we talk about the best players as those who make everyone else better than they otherwise are. This is Singletary's strength. He has the TEAM playing in excess of the sum of its individual parts. That intangible is very hard to find. It is what makes true superstars as players. I suggest to you that it is simlarly what separates great coaches from good coaches. Is Cowher viewed as a great offensive or defensive mind? Is Shottenheimer? Bellichek is seen as a defensive guru but his offense continues at the top of the league irrespective of who the coordinators are and, this year, who plays quarterback. What is Jeff Fisher's strength? Leadership, establishing the goals and identity and then holding everyone - coaches, players and staff - accountable is what separates the great coaches from ordinary ones. Walsh was an offensive guru but it was his ability to recognize talent, create a total organizational management system and hold everyone to a superior standard that earned him the genius label and was his stamp upon pro football. Limiting Walsh by crediting him only for his offensive system is myopic. Trying to identify what Singletary has done in his short tenure by statistics is simlarly limiting. I believe (and at this point it is necessarily only a belief)that Singletary has that "it" which will set him apart from a mere strategist coach. Based upon what I've seen I'm willing to take the gamble on greatness rather than perceived strategist because the change and improvement under Singletary is clearly evident and palpable even if not statistically explanatory.
I think all the professional "EXPERTS" who said J. Smith was one of the biggest overpaid-for signings this offseason need to stand up and be (dis)counted appropriately!!! The man has been a monster lately... If they get someone to complement him on the line.... they could be trouble....