--After Smith was ruled out for the season with his shoulder injury, he decided he wanted to stick around the team to rehab. He also wanted to sit in on meetings to gain a better understanding of the offense. This showed he at least had an open mind about returning to the 49ers, though his time here has not exactly been a grand experience.
--Coach Mike Nolan, who had clearly come to the conclusion Smith was a big part of the team's problem, was fired on Oct. 20.
Now, with just two games remaining in the season, there are still many unanswered questions about the path the organization will take in '09. Smith realizes his future likely rests in the hands of those who will be tabbed to fill the positions of head coach and offensive coordinator next season.
Here are some of those variables that will determine whether Smith is back for a fifth try:
Head coach: Will the new head coach want to move in a different direction, knowing Smith was the former head coach's draft pick?
Offensive coordinator: We already know Mike Martz thinks J.T. O'Sullivan has a better upside than Smith. Shaun Hill is making people in the organization re-evaluate his role for the future. Right now, the team could do a lot worse than bringing him back as the starter. But the 49ers are also likely to bring in a young quarterback to develop. So if Martz is back, is there really room for Smith on the roster?
Smith has already learned four offenses in four NFL seasons. If Martz is not back, he'll be forced to learn a new one. Smith is extremely intelligent. But in his meticulous attention to detail, it takes a while for him to get comfortable. Another offensive coordinator means another long learning period. (Unless, of course, the new offensive coordinator is also one of his former offensive coordinators.)
Smith: He said he'd accept a cut in pay. But when it comes time to hammer out the details would he (and his agent) take a deal for backup money with incentives?
Emotionally, it might be easier to go to a team where he has less pressure to perform. After all, the 49ers have already invested some $30 million in Smith, and 49ers fans are not going to forget that.
But if he has the chance to return with GM Scot McCloughan calling the shots, why wouldn't he take it? After all, if Smith goes to another team, he'll be fighting for a spot on a roster. He could be bound for a nomadic career like another No. 1 pick, David Carr.
But if he remains with the 49ers, you'd figure he would be either the No. 2 or No. 3 quarterback.
McCloughan: He wanted to draft Smith with the No. 1 pick in 2005 -- no doubt about. He says he still believes Smith will be a good NFL quarterback some day. But this is also a time when McCloughan might want to go in a different direction for the same reasons outlined above for the head coach.
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As long as McCloughan is GM - A.Smith is our QB.....its that simple.....no butts or ifs......Its common sense, the guys "believes" he will be a good NFL QB someday, why would he let another team benefit from that.......the key word is believe.
Matt, just a question about your comments "After Smith was ruled out for the season with his shoulder injury, he decided he wanted to stick around the team to rehab. He also wanted to sit in on meetings to gain a better understanding of the offense. This showed he at least had an open mind about returning to the 49ers". What other options do you see that Smith had? If he stayed away from the team, don't you think his chances of being retained by the Niners or being signed by another team would have been diminished? Personally, I believe he has no chance of being back on this team regardless who is head coach or OC. No matter what reasons can be found, a bust is still a bust.
The only way Smith is still here is Sing stays, Martz leaves for the Raiders, Norv gets fired and comes back to OC the Niners. LOL
I'd like to see Smith stay. I felt he should have been the starter over JTO (until he re-injured his shoulder of course), and I would like to see him succeed. If Shaun Hill and Coach Singletary were to stay, I would hope we could keep Smith on the cheap (though I wonder, too, if he would be willing to take anything close to league minimum), and give him his chance to earn the spot back. At the very least, Hill is a competent quarterback, so if Smith is still not performing well enough to take the number one spot, at least we have a guy we can win with doing the the job. Hopefully he's willing to take the dramatic pay cut to give the 49ers a chance to get out of him what they as yet have not obtained (though, frankly, have paid for). Great coverage as always, Matt.
Alex Smith has had four years, and cashed millions of dollars of checks, to have a good season.
If he play as well as he can make excuses, wonderful. Great. Woo Hoo...
I'm a lifelong 49er fan, dating back to Kezar, and there's always room for a good QB.
But on the list of team priorities, Alex Smith has turned into something of a sideshow. Hill has outplayed him and is ahead of him in line. Performance counts.
I don't see why Smith should have to take minimum, just less than Hill if he's going to renegotiate his contract. I like what hill has done with his oppurtunities, but I also think smith is relatively young and he makes good decisions, but he needs to work on his mechanics/accuracy and getting hit from the blind side rusher. But don't get me wrong, next season's starter has to be hill unless someone phenomenal comes along, they guy has earned it by just having a winning percentage and he has been showing improvement every week, from fumbling the ball less to throwing less interceptions, to working on his timing so receivers get the ball in stride. My only knock though is that for timing, he hits the receivers before they break, and I think that's putting a little too much trust in them running their routes correctly like one play that stood out from sunday was a quick out to VD when hill read a blitz and VD didn't even turn back, so it's good he gets it out quick, but I think he's putting a little too much faith on his receivers, who with the exception of bruce and johnson are a bit on the young side.
Anyways, back to Smith. If the niners decide to let smith go, how will they have to handle his remaining time on his contract. I know in the NBA someone'd have to buy him out, is it the same here?
"We already know Mike Martz thinks J.T. O'Sullivan has a better upside than Smith" - Matt, how do we know this? As far as I recall training camp, JTO was selected due to his superior understanding of the offense and because he gave the team the best change to "win in Week 1". Didn't Martz also say that Smith was really at the point of "breaking out" when he re-injured the shoulder?
Even during the exhibition season, when Smith was unfamiliar with the offense, he was visibly superior to JTO in ball security, which is what eventually doomed JTO. Martz or no Martz, I don't see Sing having much interest in a QB like JTO, who is careless with the football.
Matt,
Cmon man. You're killing me with these Alex Smith stories. I don't disagree with anything you've written but the comments from your readers on these Smith stories are crazy. You haven't posted a picture or clip in a while. Can't you write a story about a golden hearted cheerleader and the spectacular pair of.... charities she supports. Oh wait. It was just your anniversary. Don't want to get you in trouble. I liked it better when AS was a non-topic just as he was a non-factor in the games in which he played.
Singletary will be the Head Coach.
Smith will be signed to short-term minimum with incentives.
Martz will be signed to a four-year big-money contract with a pay-back-if-leaving-early-penalty.
Or they won't....
Matt,
Let's cut to the chase and the key underlying fundamental question. What do you hear, sense and feel about the next head coach? Is Singletary going to get the job? Are McCloughan and the Yorks interested in Holmgren who recently made statements sounding like he may not want to take next year off? Someone else? It seems to me that Singletary has won over the locker room, many members of the press based upon their comments and, I sense, a sizable portion of the fan base. If the Yorks/McCloughan fail to name Singletary they must come with a big established name or they stand to take a substantial public relations and season ticket hit, particularly since it seems pretty clear to me that Singletary has done enough to get one of the many jobs that will open in two weeks. It would really be bad if Singletary ended up with the Rams and came back next year and kicked the Niners butt. Matt, what is your sense on who will be the next head coach?
Off topic, but meanwhile . . .
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Just read the defense and offense rankings for the Niners so far this year. We're 22nd in PPG in both categories. About the same as last year, defensively, but a ten spot improvement offensively. We're a balanced team now.
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The chief culprit on offense was Red Zone scoring (offensive line failure) and the chief culprit on defense was The Big Play (safeties failure). The OL is going to improve by maturity and stability (and a solid right tackle). As virtually everyone here has said many, many times: Roman has to go. We need a quality FS and a better SS wouldn't hurt, either. Less big plays and more TDs (vs FGs) and we would be 9-5 now, not 5-9.
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At least we have risen from the bottom of the worst teams to solidly the very best of the bottom third teams. We'll begin next year as the worst of the middle pack teams and hopefully ascend to the top of that pack or the bottom of the best tier pack. This is solid, steady improvement, not the One Year Wonder kind (see Cleveland). A big core of our players is entering their youthful prime. Go Niners.
Matt,I would like to see this young man excel. But aside from the shoulder, he had/and maybe still has a very major issue. His intelligence is constantly trumpted. When Martz came along, I was very disappointed to note that he failed to use that vaunted intelligence to recognize he needed to abandon his ingrained attention to "mental details" and just fling the stupid rock like he was asked - and see what would happen. If he is still all caught up in paralysis by analysis, he should move on - especially if Martz is retained (and I personally don't see any reason why he wouldn't be). Cut and replace Jennings, each Safety over 25, and several others along the defensive front, keep in place the current coaching staff, and we WILL COMPETE wire-to-wire next season.
He hasn't produced the way we would have liked, but the guy exudes professionalism. From the way he played the 2nd half against the Redskins in 2005, to the way he continues to take the high road in all things Mike Nolan, the kid is classy. I will always pull for him no matter who he plays for.
Sooo, the next OC may want to bring in a young QB to develop...how about a 25 year-old with good mobilty, a strong arm, and knowledge of how the NFL works?
Do we know anyone who fits that profile?
In all seriousness, I love Shaun Hill and hope he's good enough to be a regular starter, but Smith is still a very young QB and has plenty of time to grow.
*relatively strong arm, and knowledge of how the "NFL works". I agree though that Smith has upside, but for some reason he just isn't performing up to what is expected of him. But Eli Manning didn't get good until the end of last year, and he's still not a phenomenal QB, in terms of stats. I think if we have realistic expectations for Smith, he'll be much more palatable to the fans.
AB's story spoke volumes about the kid's preparation and desire. Stick a fork in him – he's done.
McGM can make amends in 09 with a 2nd round pick to Nate Davis.
You hit the nail right on the head oneniner. "Believes" IS the key word...just because someone believes something, doesn't make it so. Realistically speaking Smith would never flourish as a 49er. Too much bad blood, animosity and inconsistencies. He might be successful in a different organization, but like Mr. Maiocco said because of his meticulous nature it will take him a few years to catch on with a new system. Too much time and money have been spent on Smith and in order to fully profit from his value much more would have to be spent…things that the 49ers don’t have.
Open question for anybody who follows this stuff: Has any NFL qb ever established themselves as a force to be feared after dinking around as long as Smith has? I mean Montana-Young-Elway-Manning(P) level, for multiple seasons, not 1 year wonders. I really am curious. Someone answer,if you know.
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Yes. I'd say Steve Young did a bit of "dinking around" with Tampa Bay. There are others if you check. Remember, it wasn't that long ago quarterbacks started their careers on the bench for 2, 3, even 4 years!
Thanks--I had forgotten about Young's time before SF. I wonder how the team feels about Smith staying on.
Nate Davis is our man. We need to snag him before the colts
late 1st round.
Look at this way, if the price is affordable, he's already miles ahead of anyone who might venture through the locker room door now anyway.
I'd treat it as an opportunity to find return on the investment we've already made.
A bust is a bust if you can't produce results. He has been slow to develop and I can give latitude with respect to all the OC changes.
Singletary can certainly open the camp to competition and allow a more fair race to develop, he already shot down JTO.
My vote is for team unity, the price of chemistry is the price you pay. If he's not supported within the locker room, it's time to go.
Hard to know from here how the team sees him.
If Nolan poisoned the product it's a no brainer, good luck wherever you land.
MarkW, please look up a guy named Terry Bradshaw. He suck didlyucked for the first 5 years of his career and managed to rebound nicely. See also another guy named Jim Plunkett. It is not unreasonable to believe Alex Smith could still be a good QB for the niners.
Rich Gannon was at a few places before he did quite well for the Raiders.