Head coach Mike Singletary made it clear last week that he wants the 49ers to be a running team.
The 49ers seem to believe they have most of the components to succeed in that area. And Singletary took one step he deemed necessary to improve the run game when he dismissed pass-happy Mike Martz from his duties as offensive coordinator. (Singletary is expected to begin the interview process early this week.)
The 49ers ranked 27th in the NFL in yards rushing. They were 21st in rushing average at 4.0-yards per attempt. But we can break it down a little further.
The NFL's official statisticians, Elias Sports Bureau, supplies figures for play direction. Here are those numbers for the 2008
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OFFENSE
Left end: 34 plays, 6.03 avg. NFL rank: 8. (NFL best: Chiefs; worst: Rams).
Left tackle: 38 plays, 3.76 avg. NFL rank: 23. (NFL best: Giants; worst: Jets).
Left guard: 34 plays, 3.50 avg. NFL rank: 20. (NFL best: Giants; worst: Cardinals).
Jumping to conclusions: The 49ers did a good job with run plays around left end. Vernon Davis and Billy Bajema are tight ends who are very good blockers. At this stage, left tackle Joe Staley is more of an athlete than a straight-ahead blocker. That might account for the relatively low rank on running plays behind him. Adam Snyder started seven games at left guard before line coach Chris Foerster and H.C. Mike Singletary determined he was a better fit at tackle.
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Up middle: 137 plays, 4.79 avg. NFL rank: 5. (NFL best: Giants; worst: Cardinals).
Jumping to conclusions: Center Eric Heitmann had a very good season. He clearly established himself as the team's top lineman. Heitmann kept getting better as the season wore on, too, which showed in the way he played against some of the league's top nose tackles (
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Right guard: 37 plays, 3.70 avg. NFL rank: 21. (NFL best: Cowboys; worst: Rams).
Right tackle: 49 plays, 2.90 avg. NFL rank: 32. (NFL best: Panthers; worst: 49ers).
Right end: 52 plays, 4.92 avg. NFL rank: 14. (NFL best: Ravens; worst: Colts).
Jumping to conclusions: This speaks to the inconsistency the 49ers had at right tackle this season. Jonas Jennings, Barry Sims and Snyder each started multiple games. Right tackle is a spot that the 49ers will look to upgrade in the offseason. Chilo Rachal took over for Tony Wragge at right guard in the 11th game. Wragge was a pretty good job, but Rachal showed signs of being a really good player. Again, the team's improved ranking around right end is a testament to the tight ends. David Baas, who started nine games at left guard, is not as effective when he's pulling, so that might be a reason the numbers for the right side aren't as good, too. Also, I'm not sure what this says about Frank Gore. There were some games where it appeared as if he missed some holes (the Cowboys game stands out). Maybe he made too many poor reads this season on plays in which he made multiple options. Perhaps it was easier for him to make the correct decisions on plays right up the middle.
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I'll examine the numbers for the 49ers' run defense at some point, too.
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Do you know where to find QB pressure stats, instead of simply sacks, Matt?
Also, now that the Chargers have advanced, do you think Turner is assured to remain the head coach there in 09? I thought Singletary may have been holding off until he saw what happened with the Chargers... do you think he'll proceed or wait until their season is over?
I think the OL really improved once Foerster took over, as well as playing Baas & Rachal. It will be interesting to see how much better they'll look after going through an off season under Foerster's coaching.
Hopefully we add a big, bruising RB to the roster. A true FB would also be nice to help implement Singletary's smash-mouth philosophy ;-)
Just out of curiosity, why would the Chargers fire a guy who's basically done nothing but win playoff games for them? And why would he want to go back to being an OC even if he was fired? There are way too many open HC jobs for that to happen.
After what Turner did to the niners, you really would feel comfortable having him back? I'd rather go with Matt's idea and find a guy who has no HC options for 2 or 3 years.
It's a tough thing. You want a guy who is qualified to take us to the next level, the thing is those guys (if they are HOT now) will all be looked at for HC jobs. I think most agree that it would be nice to have an someone with a little experience. I agree that Turner is not a great option, if he is fired, he'll jump at the next opportunity. Same with Martz, same with Shanahan, same with Billick. We really need continuity at this particular coaching position - someone who'll stay 3-4 years. Why? If we draft a QB and do the smart thing and sit him, by the time he is ready, the OC will be going into year 3 of his contract.
Oh, a bigger issue might be who will want the challenge of the 9ers job. It's kinda a make or break proposition, so much inconsistency, no established QB, etc. It is going to be a big challenge.
I have noticed that Michael Robinson has amazing hands and is tough to tackle in the middle of the field. Why is he not our tight end and Vernon Davis our fullback? That solves two problems we have at once and we don't even need to sign new players. Robinson can be an amazing tight end in this league. And David is great with the ball, but he never catches it. What do you think?
Way to lay it out there Matt.
From the games I've seen at the college level this year, there are OL options from plenty of schools.
I can't recall the last time so many OT/OG classes were this impressive.
Baas to me looks better at C then OG, exactly as you inferred, he's heavy footed and doesn't hit moving targets (pulls) very well.
I've promoted Loadholt (OLT) and Duke Robinson (OLG) from Oklahoma and can say there are plenty more worth looking at in April.
Watch the line play between OK/FL this week, probably one of the top matchups ever between OL/DL.
My gut says OK has the edge, but FL brings a very good cast on their DL.
With emphasis on the running game, won't one of the keys be a strong blocking fullback. And as a part of our base package?
Matt what would an uncapped year do to the Draft pick pay scale?
Would it be wise for teams to trade into 2010 and expect to steal any benefits for salary slotting?
Fitz that's a role that's getting harder and harder to find it seems.
Last year WVU had a bruiser, Owen Schmitt that I clamoured for on Draft Day, not sure who took him, but he was a Rathman-esque throwback.
I thought for sure MRob might take a shot at that spot myself.
VD would not make a good fullback because, he's just better being a tight end. he's one of the fastest guys on the team and even though sometimes he seems like a butterfingers, he is much more agile than robinson. Also, blocking as a TE is alot different than blocking as a fullback. you pick up a guy at the LOS if at all instead of having to pick up the linebacker coming in at a full head of steam. VD is an athlete suited to be a TE instead of a bruising fullback.
Hopefully next year we can pick up a good short yardage specialist. It was killer all season watching the niners get to 1st and goal, getting inside the 5 and not being able to punch it in.
I've also been wondering, lately I've been seeing alot of formation breakdowns on unbalanced line formations used by ATL and BAL. It seems like this style of running the football is way more effective than using the wildcat/single wing formations. What are the niners missing to be able to give gore those big running lanes that he hasn't gotten since Larry Allen left?
Matt what are the physical stats on Rachal? He looks slow on the pull, and looks to be heavy and out of shape for a young guy. I hope they work with him in the off season.
Marc-NJ49er-Owen Schmitt went to Seattle (I remember being miffed we didn't grab him or Red Bryant ...now a Seahawk as well!)-I think I get your drift here -what's your take on first round..NT or maybe Vontae? If Smith from Baylor fell to ten would be hard to pass on him ! No rumblings from Ninerland on OC situation -the tension builds!
Why would the Chargers fire Turner? Um, because he hasn't taken them to the Superbowl. They fired Schottenheimer and he had them playing better than they've ever played under Norv Turner. Simply put, Norv Turner is a very good coordinator and a lousy head coach. They know it in San Diego just like they found out in Washington and Oakland.
Norv Turner is not deserving of credit for the Chargers being a good team. They were the same good team when he got there two years ago. They've actually fallen back some since he got there.
Why would he go back to being a coordinator? Because, three strikes and you're out. I'd assume he'd come to grips with his shortcomings. If not, the rest of the league sure has.
Why would we welcome him back? Because he's the best coordinator we've had in the past five years and his latest failure would ensure he'd be around awhile. Also, Alex Smith would probably agree to redo his contract if Turner was back in an attempt to salvage his career and we'd save a ton of cap room.
NORV TURNER = NOT A GOOD HEAD COACH
Of course, this all goes out the window if he wins the Superbowl. If not, there are better head coaches like Shanahan and Cowher out there for them.
and you call your self a real fan - how could you not know Owen Schmitt is with the seagrlz.....
Hey Matt, the experts always say an offensive line doesn't get good until they've been together for awhile. Nobody ever seems to mention that the Niner Oline is very inexperinced as a unit, less than a full season. (Just like the whole offense.) You can't really tell how good the young guys are going to be if you keep changing players, their positions and the scheme all the time.
Arrrrrgh!!!! on any more mention of old Norv as an OC. Can anybody please tell me what, in Norv's body of work for the last 10 years, would lead anybody to believe he would be anything more than a mediocre OC at best? That's not even taking to account how he personally set the Niners offense back aleast two years.
Matt,
Did they have stats on the mean rush vs the average. I think the most likely outcome and the average could be quite different.
Never too early for draft talk. Taylor Mays the next Ronnie Lott or Sean Taylor. I think so. Once we get that FS that owns the middle of the field we will have the best defense in the NFL. If he's still there at 10, oh my god.
When Staley was drafted, the only comment I remember about him was from Mayock. He said, Staley needs a few years in an NFL weight room because his leg strength wouldn't cut it in the NFL. Are the 9ers strength and conditioning coaches any good? I know the Cards have a phenomenal strength and conditioning coach. It always looks to me like both Card lines blow our guys off the ball. After looking at the run stats for Staley I'm wondering if the 9er strength coaches know what they are doing.
Hey Matt...Just for your informational pleasure...
Here's how the 49ers' offensive line ranked overall and directionally according to Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yard stats:
Overall: 4.30 ypc (8th)
Left End: 4.96 ypc (8th)
Left Tackle: 3.91 ypc (22nd)
Center/Guard: 4.55 ypc (6th)
Right Tackle: 3.54 ypc (29th)
Right End: 3.90 ypc (22nd)
Here's the % of runs in each direction:
Left End: 8% (NFL avg = 11%)
Left Tackle: 11% (NFL avg = 14%)
Center/Guard: 57% (NFL avg = 50%)
Right Tackle: 13% (NFL avg = 14%)
Right End: 11% (NFL avg = 10%)
Just in case you're not familiar, Adjusted Line Yards only looks at the first 10 yards of a run (because yardage after that isn't due to the OL), and adjusts the yards per carry to account for down, distance, situation, and opponent. Also, they combine center and guard running plays because there's no statistical difference across the league between those two directions. To stat-trained folks like me, these are better measures of OL performance.
Here's the link to the defensive line stats:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl
Thanks Matt, I appreciate your reporting and willingness to dig deeper than the average reporting. Clearly after the Singletary takeover the O Line improved, somewhat. However a "Sack is a Sack" and in the NFL it makes no difference who is to blame as a sack(given & taken) is a key statistic as it is over the basic strategy of the game, control of the line of scrimmage and the resulting time of possession. We need improvement, whether by scheme, coaching, reshuffling personnel, or new personnel. The Niners have real decisions to make. A lot will depend on draft day and who is available. Clearly we can't continue to give up a league leading total of sacks or be near the bottom. Build a great O Line and you will have a contender who not only makes the playoffs, but can advance.
Bit puzzled by the headline - surely the figures show that "Left End" running was the most productive?
Left End running was ranked 8th in the league while Up the middle was ranked 5th in the league. I understand what your saying, since the average for Left End and Right End were both higher than the middle. But the league average is what I believe was counted. Also, the sum of total runs on both ends was lower than up the middle by 51 runs. The 9ers ran up the middle much more than they ran anywhere else.
i am officailly starting the "LETS DRAFT CODY TERRANCE" bandwagon!!!! this guy is the beast NT our team has been looking for....i know we have some huge needs in other spots, but with a 365 pound, 20 something nose tackle, and soap and smith at DE, that is scary. lets give patrick willis a mountain to hide behind, just to laser right on in on the ball. i would like everyone here to do there own research on the guy.
"LETS DRAFT TERRANCE CODY"!!!!
but league averages don't win games, yards do :-)
I hear ya oneniner, too lazy to stop and look it up.
I wrote him off when we passed over him.
He had Rathman written all over him but wasn't quite the athlete Tommy was.
Crazylegs I like Raji but feel we need DE/OLB help too.
If we could grab Suggs in FA I'd jump on the NT at 10.
I also have a small reseervation about trading back if there's an option for an extra pick. Sure will be interesting to see how Sing attacks the holes this offseason.