It only goes to reason that good teams are going to attempt more runs than bad teams. After all, bad teams often must throw the ball a lot as part of being in catch-up mode. But are good teams good because they run the ball or do they run the ball because they're good?
I believe it works both ways. Good teams are often able to put away an opponent through the use of the running game. And they can afford to stick with the run as a way of chewing up the clock because they're able to mix in a few first downs along the way.
Over the weekend, I looked at which teams in the NFL ran the football the most during the 2008 regular season. The top five running teams, percentage-wise were the Ravens (56.0 percent), Falcons (55.4), Panthers (53.7), Titans (52.2) and Vikings (51.2). Each of those teams made the playoffs. They were the only teams in the league that run the ball more than half of their total offensive plays for the season.
The Raiders ran the ball 49.9 percent of their offensive plays, ranking sixth in the league. But their run game, obviously, did not translate to victories.
In 2008, the 49ers ran the ball just 41.3 percent of the time. Only eight teams in the NFL ran the ball a smaller percentage of the time. Of those teams, the Eagles (26th), Colts (29th) and Cardinals (32nd) made the playoffs.
* * *
So what is Mike Singletary's offensive philosophy? This is what he said on Dec. 31:
"My offensive philosophy is more of a traditional one, more of a run to pass. When it really comes right down to it, sometimes you have to pass more, sometimes you have to run more, depending on the clock situation, depending on the score. But if I'm going to go into the game, my philosophy is to run a little bit more than passing and hopefully have a balance, 50-50. But the most important thing for me is to be able to run. You have to know that you can run the football. I'm not trying to outsmart anybody. I'm not trying to be a magician. We are playing football and we need to be able to run the football."
And this is what new offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye said on Jan. 30 about the passing game after he was hired:
"I have no objection to throwing the football. I think if people are going to try to load up the box against you in the running game, depending on your personnel groups and location and the passes available to you, we will play, we will throw the ball, we will play offense and our offense will be able to take care of the contingencies of what the defense presents."
* * *
Perhaps the best indication of whether a team is a passing team or a running team is to look at what it does on first downs. Here is each team's percentage of running plays on first-and-10 (you'll notice that the top two run teams on this list had rookie quarterbacks and No. 3 had a serious QB problem):
1, Falcons 66.83
2, Ravens 66.75
3, Vikings 59.7
4, Panthers 58.61
(tie) Titans 58.61
6, Steelers 57.74
7, Giants 55.69
8, Jets 55.0
9, Chargers 54.1
10, Browns 53.5
11, Raiders 53.2
12, Bills 52.8
13, Buccaneers 51.9
14, Packers 49.1
15, Dolphins 48.8
16, Rams 48.2
17, Redskins 47.8
18, Bears 47.0
19, Patriots 46.7
20, Cowboys 46.4
21, Eagles 45.9
22, Seahawks 45.7
23, Lions 45.03
24, Bengals 45.01
25, Colts 44.1
26, 49ERS 42.96
(tie) Texans 42.96
28, Cardinals 42.8
29, Chiefs 41.5
30, Saints 41.2
31, Jaguars 40.8
32, Broncos 37.7
* * *
Clearly, Singletary would like to see the 2009 49ers run the ball with greater frequency. Of course, that is a heck of a lot easier when the team is winning.
* * *
first. Though, running before passing is a great traditional philosophy...and it still works, but i think that the personnels HAVE to fit the philosophy. Which I, personally, believe the niner dont have the o-line to do so, unless they sign FA or draft accordingly. anyone?
I agree with Singletary that the 49ers need to be able to run the ball with confidence. There was a lot of frustration last year with the inability to consistently get 3 yards or so on first down, and the lack of confidence in the ability to get first downs on 3rd and 1. So another year of the same offensive line, with maybe an upgrade at right tackle, and a tough blocking fullback, and that problem should be corrected. But Singletary also said that he wanted about 50% pass plays, too. So hopefully there will be games when the team has more pass plays than runs, and the OC takes what the defense gives them. Nothing wrong with that approach. I think we all may have assumed that Singletary will have a more conservative offensive game plan that he actually will.
Didn't the top 9 teams on that list finish with winning records?
To a certain extent, I think the ability to run is extremely important. If we look at the 9er.s the past few years we were killed in short yardage situations and the red zone. If we can dominate a team and punch it into the endzone or get a first down I am all for it. Moedern offenses are about keeping a defense off balance or on their heels. Our best, most consistant offensive player is Gore, so we should play to our strengths. If we were to build an offense around passing to the TE, we would be in trouble.
Honestly, the only reason why I think Coach Sing wants the Niners to run is because it is the best thing the team does with consistency, especially in regards to ball security.
That being said, I am sure the stats this past season were skewed to turnovers based on interceptions because of Martz's system. Granted, there were many times Gore, Foster, and Robinson fumbled, which was very frustrating to watch.
I do agree that to succeed in running we need to shore up the offensive line a bit more and I think that it can be done during this off-season. As far as the passing game is concerned, we have more question marks there, which is why I believe Coach Sing rather defer to the running game until we get the QB and WR in order.
Just my opinion.
Traj
Two games that point to the need to effectively run the ball come to mind. First was the 2nd Cards game...our short ydg run game was pitiful when it really counted. We have to fix that. Second game was in Miami...we moved the ball up and down the field, but our lack of a power running game in key situations contributed greatly to losing a game we should've won. Had we won those games...we would've been in the playoffs. The fact we didn't is part of what's fueling Singletary to fix our running game. He'll fix the RT position...and get a better RB corps. He'll bring in a top FB. That should about do it. The rest is about the ability to impose your will on the other team...which is as much about attitude as it is having the right players and coaches to execute it.
Hi Matt, Many 49er fans want to go back to the West Coast offense but think a moment how many teams won Super Bowls with that offense. The only true WC offenses were the Bill Walsh teams of the 80's. The Pack had a gunslinger when Holgrem won the title and the Broncos' won with Davis running the ball. My point is that great offensive minds are few and far between. In the history of the NFL two names stick out as men that were coaching offense at a different level, they were Paul Brown and Bill Walsh. Nobody else is even close. Coach Walsh was a master pure and simple and they don't come along often.
Hey Matt, I did a similar quick percentage analysis on the Webzone, take a look and tell me what you think.
http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/thread.php?num=117948&start=0
A dominant right tackle (one of the top 4 this year would do!) and maybe adding Duke Robinson or Max Unger to bolster OG(probably won't happen as we need other pieces!) and our Ol would start to look very imposing! FB is another issue-the draft looks thin there -trade or free agency maybe(I think VD Would excel there but probably wont happen) and as you say "right attitude" makes a difference as we saw in the stretch last year!
OF COURSE, you want to be able to run the ball as well as pass it. And a strong defense and running game usually means a winning record. My point would be (certainly for someone of my age who lived through the teams of 1967 - present)...DO YOU WANT TO BE A CHAMPION? I no longer care about just a winning team (though certainly you need to aim to that first). Look at the stats presented. Even though the Colts lost to the Chargers, which of the teams REALLY were SB contenders? The Eagles or the Titans? The Cardinals or the Falcons? The Steelers or the Panthers (or Vikings)? The run heavy teams aren't able to strike quickly against a great team AND they can't come from behind. As bad as the Saints defense was last year, I still think they would have had a better shot against the Card in the playoffs than the Panthers did (even though Carolina obviously deserved the playoff berth over the Saints as they won 50% more games than New Orleans did). AND...."no objection to the pas"???????????? Geez! What an idiotic comment to make. Well, 49er fans - we kinda, better hope that Martz doesn't go to the Cards...We may in fact have a doofus coach in Singletary (man, I have gone 180 on this hire already - what a complainer I am in my old age!)...and Jimmy Raye....??????......Will 6 wins next year be few enough to get us a shot as Tim Tebow (or Bradford or.....)?
I don't follow college football, but my draft strategy for this year would be.....offensive line, cornerback, pass rush. Pass rush first, offensive line second. I'd bypass every other position (unless a true gem was available).
My only question is where in the world did Mike Singletary do anything associated with offense. Did he ever play offense? No. Did he ever coach offense? No. He seems to like smash mouth football so he wants to run the ball. Ok - I can live with that. I can't imagine he has an offensive philosophy since he knows absolutely nothing about offense. I hope he's just answering questions and trying not to sound like an idiot instead of dictating the offense to someone with offensive experience beyond pee wee leagues.
Houston,
How can you state that one of the greatest Middle Linebacker in this history of the NFL doesn’t know offense? Have you EVER played Linebacker? You need to know what everyone on the offense is doing on every given play. Mike Singletary was known as a student of the game. He wasn’t the most talented physically but he was a bull in the film room and on the practice field. He worked harder than anyone else to achieve his greatness. You are going to tell me that a guy that played Middle Linebacker at he highest level in NFL history, a guy that spent well over 20 years playing football and studying offenses for his games on Friday night, then Saturday’s and finally Sundays/Mondays in the NFL doesn’t know anything about the very side of the football he spent all those hours studying? I find that very hard to believe.
Couple of things: 1) I agree with Frank about those two games where the lack of a consistent and reliable running game killed the team. I would also add in the Cowboys game. Lets not forget that the 9ers crammed it down their throat in the first quarter, but cam away with only two field goals. Turn those into a couple of touchdowns, and the rest of that game, hell, the rest of the season, may very well have had a different look. 2) It may be true that Singletary has never really been involved in offensive play calling or game planning. I think it is a mistake however, to discount the fact that he was the leader and field general for one of the greatest defenses to come me along in quite a while. I've never played serious football, so I could be way off, but I would think that after QB, middle linebacker may have more responsibility in terms of calling plays, reading an offense, etc., than anyone else on the field. I would imagine that his success, and the success of that defense, was due in no small part to his ability to key into the offense, read formations and personnel, learn tendencies, etc., not to mention the countless hours I am certain he spent watching film on and studying opposing offenses. So, while he may never have done it with a headset on, I think many here are greatly underestimating Singletay's knowledge of an offense.
Damn you Mike in SF #2, you stole my thunder while I was typing! You probably said it better than I however, so well put!
Those teams that run the ball more than throw. It would be interesting to see when they run the ball. Probably more in the 2nd half when they're ahead. In the 1st half probably slightly more passing. Footballoutsiders.com discusses this run to win paradox in great detail.
Unfortunately, for those of us who remember and lust for what championship football is like, success for Singletary will be getting into the playoffs. You can expect McCloughan and the coaches to aim (low) at the playoffs to keep their jobs. If they are willing to build a team for bigger/better things they'll need a very good passing game, and that starts with a QB that can throw the ball more than 20 yards without putting a big arc in the throw. A passing game that can't go deep, severely hurts the running game, and keeps young receivers from showing their downfield potential.
Oh, to have Pioli and and Haley instead of McCloughan and Singletary!
Actually, I have many years playing and coaching middle linebackers. The Mike is primarily responsible for shutting down the running plays. He typically calls the defense for the front 7 while a safety is responsible for calling the db's coverage. The mike in most cases has gap assignments. He is a leader on the defense but he doesn't need to know where receivers are running their routes. A mike needs to know blocking assignments from the offense and where an offense likes to run so he can best stop the runs. I am sure Sing likes a smash mouth attack due to his bias as a mlb, and that is definitely a relevent argument. My point is that he can say he wants a running team but he's not qualified as an offensive strategist. According to your logic, why not just plug Willis in as RB. He's big, fast, and in his role as the mike he knows where to run and how to run.
I'd take Pioli and Sing, you can have Haley...
Isn't the better question "Are you running because you have to or because you want to?" If you're running because you stink at the passing game, either because of bad QB or bad scheme, then you are the 2007 49ers. If you're running because you have found a mismatch that you can take advantage of, then you're good.
Did you see P-52’s 85 yarder INT for a touchdown? With a little tongue to cheek, that might not be a bad idea!!
I just re-read my response and Im not sure I answered your question. To be more direct: There is not a middle linebacker or any other defensive player in the history of the NFL who is qualified to run an offense based on his accumulated knowledge as a player. To be qualified, a person needs years of experience coaching offense, devising offensive game plans, and calling offensive plays. My concern with Sing is that he found an OC he can push around to run an offense that fits what Sing would find difficult to defend when he played mlb but doesn't fit the current landscape of the NFL.
I'd take Pioli and Sing, you can have Haley...
In the early '60s I was in the military in the Upper Peninsula. During football season the first two words out of your mouth had better be Green Bay, as in the Packers. The coach was Vince Lombardi. For a typical game he would have ten to twelve running plays and eight to ten passing plays. The object wasn't to fool anybody, it was to execute every play perfectly. For example, every opponent knew the Packers would run the Green Bay sweep but no team could consistently stop it. That was because Lombardi would practice a play until it was done correctly every time. His playbook was about one third the size of any other. He probably wasn't a good theoretician but he was a great coach and leader. Some of his qualities were respect, honesty, and he was feared by all. Does anyone besides me see a similarity here with Coach Singletary? It's true the jury is still out but the future looks bright for the 49ers.
Matt,
The other thing you may want to look at is those 5 playoff teams also got bounced from the playoffs because they all have subpar passing games that are terribly inconsistent without any BIG PLAY ability! Look at the Cardinals as a perfect example of how you win in the playoffs, especially if you don't have a great defense, you must get BIG PLAYS in the passing game.
Matt-
Here's the definitive stat analysis on the "establishing the run" question. It's a little dated (ca 2003), but still in force.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2003/establishment-clause
there are many formulas to produce winning teams. More important is getting the right type of players to implement your style
During the 80's and 90's, the 49ers would always be at the top of both running & passing stats. It was common for thsoe teams to Pass for close to 300 amd run for close to 200 in the same game. THey would kill you with the pass in the first half and run you into the ground in the second half. Wendell Tyler, Roger Craig, Ricky Watters, Charlie Garner, Garrison Hearst, all dominated along the way. The defences on those teams were also almost always at or nest the top of the league every year. Running is great, but you need to do everything well to compete for a title every year.
After I wrote that comment about Willis, the first play I thought of was that int. He's a great athlete who's perfectly suited for linebacker.
I was thinking the exact same thing...Everyone, media especially, has taken what Sing said about his "philosophy" and ran with it, spun it, smacked itup, flipped it, rubbed it down....What he said above is vague, but clear he "wants to be ABLE TO RUN...Know you can run." He also said he's open to trick plays, and innovative offense, ie Wildcat, etc...Does anyone really think he's going to announce exactly what he's got in store offensively to the entire media world?? What coach, at any level, tells the world what he's got planned? Did BW ever explain the WCO?
Niners clearly have to get better in short yardage and 3rd/4th down sitations. A good smash mouth running game compliments the passing, and vice-versa....Can't have one w/out the other....BTW good article/research Matt!
I think its good to be a run team, but the QB should know how to pass the ball in crit situations. The thing is your not going to run the ball down 14 in the 4th and you will run the ball up 14 in the 4th. But they should prepare to be in a certain mode when theyre in those situations. Not just saying run the ball but were giving it to the RB whether its a dump off pass or run it up the gut. I think YAC should be looked at as part of the running game like if you do a 1 yard pass in a screen then the RB, TE runs for a TD 60 yac. If Sing wants to be physical on O most of the players are OL and they got to be the most physical.
All five teams, Ravens (56.0 percent), Falcons (55.4), Panthers (53.7), Titans (52.2) and Vikings (51.2), were in the playoffs but didn't make it to the Super Bowl. Why?
i think singletary needs to be more discreet on what philosophy he wants to use and get the right personal to succed in that philosophy...and jimmy raye is a bum he's had 5 OC positions and sucked at every one...
MM - February 9th is the first day on which teams may place players on waivers. In other words, its the first day to cut/release players. Is there anything to report from 49ers land?
Hey Matt,
I think it's important to point out that the Cardinals looked horrible at the end of the season and their playoff push was fueled by a sudden ability to run the ball. The Eagles were struggling until they rediscovered Westbrook and his running ability down the stretch. The Colts....they just have Peyton Manning. But these three teams ran into trouble in the playoffs when they couldn't run anymore. I'm not saying the run is key, but there is a strong correlation between running success and winning percentage. Given our lack of talent at QB, obviously you'd want to be more of a running team until you can find some answers in the passing game.
Question: February 9th is the first day on which teams may place players on waivers. In other words, its the first day to cut/release players. Is there anything to report from 49ers land?
My response: So you think I'm holding out on you, huh? --Matt M.
Comment: Hey Matt, I think it's important to point out that the Cardinals looked horrible at the end of the season and their playoff push was fueled by a sudden ability to run the ball.
My response: Or did the Cardinals run the ball because they were leading in those games? Actually, the Cardinals averaged 3.5 yards per running attempt in the regular season. In their four playoff games, they averaged just 3.3 yards. Perhaps, the perception was a lot different because the Cardinals were winning. --Matt M.
Many would argue the run set up the pass. Either way, I agree with you. It's the whole "chicken/egg" argument and frankly, I don't care what they do as long as they win a Super Bowl
Thanks MM. I know you will scoop us as soon as you get the news.
Not to disagree with Matt! I always learned that each game presents itself with different tactics as does each play! Percentages are all right to see a team in totality based on a season! But each single game is a single entity ! Many times teams come into games as statistically better at running or passing! But then the team sets a game plan completely the opposite of its strength! Many times! And it works to put the other team on its heals!
The Steelers statistically were #6 in runs on first down. But what did they do in the SB? They passed way more than they ran, and this includes first downs! They Knew they needed to score often to beat the Cards! The Cards stayed with what got them there! The Steelers have a great defense, but their coaches took advantage by playing a wide open game!
This great debate is still raging. Does it really matter? Again, the only way to win is to score more points then the other team.
The only real stat that I trust that seems to be constant in pointing to a winning team is turnover margin. Niners were last in the NFL (tied with the Broncos). The top five teams in T.O. Diff. made the playoffs. The top two teams in T.O. Diff durning the playoffs were the Cards and Steelers. The Cards run in the playoffs had more to do with that then Warner and Fitz. That is the key stat and the only key stat IMO. Changing that trend seems to be Sings biggest goal and running more seems to be how he wants to accomplish it. We were dead last in Turnovers last year and we were 7-9. If we were just middle of the pack we would have won the west.
Also note that 4 of the top 5 total defense teams went to the playoffs while only 1 of the top 5 total offensive teams went to the playoffs. So all the fools trying to pull up stats saying that Sing doesn't know whats up need to recognize that 1) stats don't matter 2) if they do the stats support what sing is trying to build. Strong D, limit turnovers.
But in the end all that matters is scoring more points then the team your playing against that week.
Good post, Bum. Note also that the only reason Miami made the play-offs was their amazing lack of TOs during the season. Then they coughed up a bunch against the Ravens and got whomped.
It is definetly winning first, then running. That running issue has been taken too far from Singletary's comments.
He wants to win games, and he wants to be able to run the ball so he can control games and the clock.
If we are behind on a game, I am sure we are going to be passing the ball.
Let's concentrate on what we NEED to be a winning team and don't debate on the running issue so much by itself.
Singeltary wants to turn the ball over much LESS and be able to control the clock, perhaps the reason to focus a little more on the running game than before is minimize turnovers (remember OSullivan's constant fumbles and interceptions).
He knows we are not far from being a contender team, that line is really thin, and after a few improvements on defense (PASS RUSH AND SAFETY), on the offense (RT, FB and additional RB) and on the game plan (with less turnovers) we can definetly be in the playoffs.
Your post forced me to dig into some 2003 archives here...
We were first in the NFC to cause turnovers, and fourth overall in the NFL. Refresh my memory fellas, but our offense must have been REALLY dreadful to not even end up as a wildcard that year. But it was enough to get Denny kicked to the curb.
What I do recall were the stellar performances of Julian Petersen and Andre Carter back in the day - two players that forced the opposing offensive coordinators to spend an extra hour or two in pre-game team meetings. PWillie gives us that kind of attention, but nobody in our DE or OLB department.
I still stand by my Sanchez choice at 10 if he's still there, but Everette Brown could trump everybody else at this stage.
The only stats that mean much are situational. Poor teams throw more because they are behind more and way behind much more.
How would these stats change if you only took the first half? A lot. How well do teams do on third and one? That's meaningful. Etc.
If that was not the dumbest statement ever...I don't know what else could beat it....ARE YOU SERIOUS?, I MEAN HOW IGNORANT DO YOU HAVE TO BE TO BELIEVE YOUR COMMENT....."There is not a middle linebacker or any other defensive player in the history of the NFL who is qualified to run an offense based on his accumulated knowledge as a player"......HOW CAN YOU SAY THAT WITH A FUNCTIONING BRAIN?...to assume a player who used to play defense cannot figure out a way to learn the offense better and coach it better than an offensive player is dumb.........." To be qualified, a person needs years of experience coaching offense, devising offensive game plans, and calling offensive plays".....what about rookie OC's with no experience?.......How about Coaches that had to learn on the job?.....
FYI - JOHN MADDEN - Was an offensive tackle for the Philadelphia Eagles (1958), Oakland Raiders (1967–1968) (linebackers coach), Oakland Raiders (1969–1978)
(head coach) .....here was a guy who played both offense and defense in college..He won all-conference honors at offensive tackle.........if it could happens once from offense to defense - then it can happen from defense to offense.....the key word is "opportunity".....it is dumb to say it can never happen!!!
It is true that a defensive players have to break down film every week looking for the little details that will give them that winning edge. And having experience breaking down film will definitely have a profound positive impact on how Coach Singletary and his staff prepare each week. The Houston is right though that being able to break down film doesn't necessarily make Singletary able to coach and develop the offense, how to move the feet and hands to block, how to mix in feints and get leverage. But that's what his offensive staff is for. That's why I'm not so ready to knock on the raye hire, even though his teams haven't had success, he's been a coach for longer than I've been alive and I'd like to assume that he's picked up SOMETHING from all that time with football. At worse, Singletary will be able to learn to manage coaching offense from his contact with Raye.
FYI - FRO SCOTT McGM -...."Q: Mr. McCloughan, I have been a 49ers fan all my life. I'm 19-years old, and take every down as serious as the players or coaches on the field do. I know you can’t talk about draft picks or free agents, but is Shaun Hill going to be fighting for the starting job at quarterback? ---------------------------A: Yes he will be – there’s no doubt about it. Shaun has done everything that we’ve asked him to do. He’s been out there with limited reps in the last two seasons, has been put into game situations and he’s produced. That’s what we look for at any position. For a quarterback learning a new system the last two years and with him being able to step in and win some games for us, proves that he’s a good football player. That right there puts him in place to be competing for the starting job. .......------AND YOU STILL THINK A.SMITH WON"T START NEXT SEASON...HA HA HA....THANK GOD FOR McGM.......read it again he said SHAUN HILL - WILL BE FIGHTING FOR STARTING POSITION ----he even added "NO DOUBT ABOUT IT".-----IF that is not confirmation that this is still A.Smith's job to lose...i don't what else..
http://www.49ers.com/pressbox/news_detail.php?PRKey=5132
Your post forced me to dig into a game by game breakdown on our 03 team. We were +12 in TO margin that year and finished 7-9. In 7 wins we had +10 in turnovers. In 9 losses we had +2 turnovers, counting an OT loss against STL where we actually had a +3 but still lost. So in 8 losses we had -1. That year we were also 6-2 at home and 1-7 on the road.
This year we were also 7-9 with a -17 TO margin. In our 9 losses we had a -18 margin in our 7 wins we had a +1, counting that one point win against STL where we were -3 but still won. So in 6 wins we were +4. This year we were also 4-4 at home and 3-5 on the road. :/ I think this proves that our team has better spirit and more fight now then under Denny for sure. But more than anything else I think it shows how worthless the stat game is!
Matt, great stuff as always. here's the next question: if the Niners are to seriously upgrade their run ability, what do they need to do -- ie, can we get your insider opinion, or a well regarded scout's, on each line position, and fullback? i keep hearing that Vernon Davis is a good/very good blocker, so presuming we keep him, how do Staley, Heitman, etc stack up versus the top run blockers in the league? and what do we need to do at fullback, if anything? this all presumes Gore is the answer at halfback, which i think we take for granted - any reason to have caution on that? i've been a little bothered by the fact that neither Gore not any other rb can pick up 1 yard when we need it (ie, 3rd and 1, or any play at the 1 yard line)
did I miss the super bowl for stats? Pointless....
Lombardi had a pretty good offensive mind....I even think they named a trophy after him
Anybody look at the stats of the 1981 SF 49ers? You could argue that they were the worst team ever to win the Lombardi Trophy.....is this thing on.....Matt you on Twitter?
It's not very meaningful to talk run vs pass when there is no reference to how the defense is set against you. In 2007 our passing game was so weak that teams just stacked up against the run and shut us down. The lesson is clear. If you have a weak area, the defense will focus on your strength and get a hugh advantage against you. I agree with all the comments that we need to improve our running game so we can get that couple of yards when we need it. Hopefully a solid RT and FB will get us there. But we better not lose any of the progress we made in the passing dept or 09 could bring back some ugly memories of 07.
I don't think any of this matters. There is still one glaring problem with this organization - McCloughan. This dude has had a BOUNTY of draft picks over the last 4 drafts, and has missed badly. It doesn't matter who is coaching the team when you don't have the players to take you to the promise land - and the Niners do NOT.
I think Percy,Percy,Percy could solve alot of our offensive woes.
Matt you are ignoring the elephant in the room. All the top teams in your list have solid, all pro type, big offensive lines. Put it another way none of the top teams in your list have a Snyder or a Sims playing for them. The O line is the key.
Most fans who are dreaming of a reprise of Gore's 1500 yard season in 2006 are forgetting that he got most of those yards running behind Larry Allen. Well, Chilo Rachal is no Larry Allen. Just because Singletary talks of smashmouth football does not mean that people like Rachal, Snyder, and Sims will become All pros.
The fact is, unless McCloughan manages to significantly upgrade the O-Line, the typical 49er drive in 09 will be Gore up the middle for 3, Gore off left tackle for 2, Gore off right tackle for 3, punt. After three or four three and outs the team will be down 17, the run will be abandoned, and the opposing D will disregard the run, pin their ears back and come after the QB. I would love to be wrong, in fact I hope I am wrong, but I have to be realistic. The Singletary / Raye offense will be a carbon copy of the Nolan / Hostler offense in 07.
Bottomn line: If we go into the season without an upgraded O-Line and run the Singletary smashmouth offense we will still have more passes the runs at the end of the year because we will be behind in most games.
Comment: Matt you are ignoring the elephant in the room. All the top teams in your list have solid, all pro type, big offensive lines. Put it another way none of the top teams in your list have a Snyder or a Sims playing for them.
My response: The 49ers' goal for 2009 is to have someone starting at right tackle who's not named Snyder or Sims. --Matt M.
jordan gross for r and l tackle,leonard weaver for fullback,percy harvin for,ah, everything,and we have a top-tier offense.quinn johnson might be a great pick if weaver gets away.
Matt, depending on the situation with Arizona and Warner, do you see a chance that Matt Leinart might become available? I know he did not shine when he got to the cards but I 'm wondering if that was more due to being a rookie than anything else. I'm sure he's learned a lot under Warner and matured to where he may be a talent after all and thus someone we should go after. Could we get him/go after him? What say you?
Stats are what the teams live or die by Matt, certainly.
But-
I also acknowledge that the healthy teams who get hot at the right time can grab a wave of momentum and cash in.
Had the Cards been forced to play in NY or Chicago for instance in a cold/foul weather game, could they have survived? We'll never know of course, but I don't think Edge trying to turn the corner in bad weather would have gotten it done. He reminded me of Barlow, the best East/West RB ever to lose a yard more often then to gain 3.
I like the philosophy Sing seems to want im place, run to pass.
That being said, Baas and Sims need to go.
If we can land a stud at DE or OT with the 10 pick, I can't see a better option.
I'm pulling for Duke Robinson too, hoping to see him on the board in Rd 2.
At this point, who knows?
"I don't think any of this matters. There is still one glaring problem with this organization - McCloughan. This dude has had a BOUNTY of draft picks over the last 4 drafts, and has missed badly. It doesn't matter who is coaching the team when you don't have the players to take you to the promise land - and the Niners do NOT."
How quickly we forget. Nolan had final say for his first 3 years. Did Mc really do that bad in the one draft and offseason that can truly be credited to him? Even not taking that into consideration our team is much better in virtually every aspect then it was after the mess of the cap purge. Rattay/Barlow/Conway/Lloyd ugh.
just got a call from Jed - de/olb Everette Brown is our number 1 pick......
Good point Matt. It always annoys me when people say "the 49ers are X and Y when Gore runs more than 30 times a game." I always want to point out that they have an even better winning percentage in games where they take a knee in the 4th quarter.
Hey Franchise, two threads ago you said Pro Football Weekly was your year in year out prophet. Maybe you should check the Yellow Pages for a new swami:
"Pro Football Weekly ran these dueling sets of Super Bowl predictions: New England over Dallas (predicted twice), Dallas over New England (predicted twice), San Diego over Dallas (predicted twice), Dallas over San Diego (predicted twice), New England over Seattle and San Diego over Philadelphia. Seven of the 10 predicted Super Bowl winners failed to reach the postseason, and no prediction mentioned either of the teams that did reach the Super Bowl. PFW's annual edition had the Cowboys winning the Super Bowl, as did the Athlon annual -- both publications forecast as the Super Bowl winner a team that did not make the playoffs."
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Just having fun, guy. None of these predictors is ever right.
LOL. Yeah, but didn't every other media outlet predict NE and DA? I know I did. ;)
PFW are my prophets purely for draft evaluation. Fortunately these scouts don't get into the business of NFL playoff prognostication.
Here's my prediction – the Niners will finish 2009 with a 7-9 season – a stout defense and a high-effort, but low scoring offense. Discuss.
I know some here are saying that the SB was predicted in Sports Magazines to be Cowboys vs. Patriots.
But I love seeing Dallas and its owner Jerry Jones (who comes down on the field towards the end of the game like his big ego can make the team win) having a breakdown! Not only did they NOT get to the SB, but they were getting their lunch handed to them the last few games! It was GREAT! And now on the NFL Network and ESPN show in interviews with some of their players saying they feel the team might be falling apart or in dissarry piece by piece! With players now deciding if they want T.O back!? Do you believe it!!? I LOVE IT! There QB is touted to be a choker when it comes to crunch time despite Madden kissing his butt like he does Farve! MAN AIN'T IT GREAT!
As for the Patriots, I have to admit I don't hold them in the same manner of hatred! But I'm kinda sick of hearing about them and seeing them in the playoffs! Now they have problems with deciding whether to sign Cassel to that big contract to sit on the bench just in case Brady doesn't come through physically! Or letting Cassel go to another team! MAN AIN'T IT GREAT!