Smith visited the 49ers last week and underwent a medical examination. Smith (6-foot-5, 321 pounds) has played in just 17 games the past two seasons because of a lower-back problem. The examination did not reveal any surprises, according to a source close to the situation.
The 49ers want Smith, and it appears Smith wants to return to the Bay Area to play for the 49eres. Stay tuned, something could happen in the next couple days. He would be penciled in as the team's starting right tackle, a spot at which he started his first three NFL seasons with the Steelers. Smith was selected to the AFC Pro Bowl team at left tackle in 2005.
Joe Staley, a two-year vet coming off his first season at left tackle, looks pretty solid. But the 49ers need help at right tackles. The club started three different players there in 2008: Jonas Jennings, Barry Sims and Adam Snyder.
Smith, who turns 31 during training camp, is an
* * *
The 49ers signed guard Tony Wragge to a one-year contract extension through the 2010 season. It is the second time in seven months Wragge has signed a one-year extension. He received a $175,000 signing bonus in July to extend his contract through 2009. Now, the club has added another year.
Wragge gives the 49ers some good insurance. Wragge started the first 10 games of the season at right guard - and did a commendable job -- before rookie Chilo Rachal supplanted him. Wragge could find himself back in the team's starting lineup in the future, depending what happens with David Baas, whose current contract is set to expire after the upcoming season.
* * *


Strickland signed with the Jets.
Hey Matt,
Do you think this would change whether or not we draft Andre Smith?
I hope we sign marvel smith because barry sims is a bum and adam snyder is ok but we definitely need 2 upgrade that position. If barry sims is our starting tackle were in for a long year..
I'm excited about this (if he stays healthy, I'm pretty concerned about that) because it gives us the leverage to go after a pass rusher with #10 and draft an OT in rounds 2, 3, or 4. The FA period seems like it's been widely panned by the peanut gallery but if Smith is signed, we've improved both lines, and added a solid blocker in front of Frankie. Not sure about Jones, yet.
I know every one bags on Sims. He sucks as a starting tackle. But he shouldn't be a starting tackle. He should be the third or fourth tackle on the team. And when you're the third/fourth tackle you are what you are - a backup. an you cant expect a backup to play like a starter.
Sucks that they just let Strickland walk. The cap is far from a concern and that guy always stepped up and performed well whenever he played.
Comment: Hey Matt, Do you think this would change whether or not we draft Andre Smith?
My response: The 49ers have been saying all along that they're going to take the player they deem the "best available" at No. 10. With the likely addition of Marvel Smith, it makes it a little easier to believe.
They don't have to take an offensive tackle now. But, also, if they have Andre Smith or Michael Oher as the best player on the board, they can still make that call. It certainly opens up the possibilities.
Really, if there's a player at No. 10 that they like, they can take a QB, RB, WR, OL, DL, LB or DB. There is not a position they can't use. --Matt M.
Hi Matt, can you shed some light on how the talks are heating up? Did you talk to his agent or get some new info? Last I heard, a contract was offered, but haven't heard anything since. Thanks Matt
Matt - It's a total DRAG that Sando is there and your not!
You could have asked your followers to pony up. We could have set up a "Get Matt to the Meetngs" fund on Paypal.
You might have been in a the Motel6 in San Clemente, but hell we would have gotten you down here!
Heck, I would have loaned you a car....
Matt, Whats been the hesitancy in extending Bass' contract? He never has had the chance to get a full season in as a starter. Bass is exactly the kind of Lineman Singletary would want; young and mean. They need to lock him up now before they have to spend way more next off-season.
Matt:
In the 1989 season, we rotated Bruce Collie with Terry Tausch at right guard. Each played a quarter throughout most of the season.
Any chance we might consider that again if we got Marvel?
Argument for is to reduce his wear and tear and have him fit for the play-offs. Argument against is big drop-off to back-up.
P.S. I was ECSTATIC to hear Coaches views on Razor and Mr T the other day. He played like a winner, he talks like a winner and he coaches like a winner, which will make us long suffering 49ers winners again!
Sorry for what may be a dumb question (or one that has perhaps already been answered), but is there any knowledge of what the offer that was made to Smith looks like in terms of money, years, etc? Or is that something that's not released until after the deal is accepted/rejected?
Question: Whats been the hesitancy in extending Bass' contract?
My response: It's all about money. I'm sure if Baas/agent and the 49ers were on the same page as far as compensation for an extension, it would've been done long ago. --Matt M.
"Georgia QB Matthew Stafford came away miffed after a recent meeting with the 49ers.
The Niners' psychologist opined that Stafford had "unfinished business" with his parents divorce, which left Stafford wondering how much he was being charged by the hour for the psychoanalysis. Responded coach Mike Singletary: "Maybe he doesn't belong here." Or maybe Stafford nailed the answer. If Stafford's intelligence scares off the team, perhaps it says more about the team than the quarterback.
Source: ProFootballTalk.com "
This struck me as quite odd. Any insight, Matt?
Strickland to Jets? Ok. I wanted him back, but we had every chance to sign him, so I guess he wasn't wanted. I think we'll add a DB on the first day of the draft. Maybe another on the 2nd. Not sure if Spencer is worth his place, either in terms of performance or pay value. Although this is probably Harris' last year as a starter, so Spencer may be kept for some stability and experience.
It'd be nice if Brown could come through as a starter.
Question: is there any knowledge of what the offer that was made to Smith looks like in terms of money, years, etc?
My response: In a situation like this, where a player has experienced recent injuries, it can get a bit complex. I would imagine we're looking at a one- or two-year deal with plenty of clauses in the deal to protect both the player and the team.
The 49ers need to be protected if Smith misses a lot of time with an injury, and Smith needs to be properly compensated if he plays a lot and plays well. My best guess is that it'll take a little time to hammer out those details. --Matt M.
"It's all about money. I'm sure if Baas/agent and the 49ers were on the same page as far as compensation for an extension, it would've been done long ago"
So they have been negotiating?
Comment: "Georgia QB Matthew Stafford came away miffed after a recent meeting with the 49ers. The Niners' psychologist opined that Stafford had "unfinished business" with his parents divorce. . . . ,This struck me as quite odd. Any insight, Matt?
My response: I don't think it's odd at all. I'm no psychologist, but if Stafford didn't have some "unfinished business," would he had reacted like that? Teams need to find out about these players. The 49ers -- and a lot of other teams -- have been employing non-football professionals to help in these interviews for a long, long time.
It's all part of the puzzle. I remember when Mike Singletary said he was not all that impressed with Patrick Willis. It was only after he found out about Willis' difficult childhood that all the pieces of the puzzle fit together and Singletary said he began to view Willis in a different light.
Personally, I think if Stafford was so offended by this, the 49ers found out a piece of information that may or may not have any bearing on how they view him as a football player. --Matt M.
Comment: (About David Baas) So they have been negotiating?
My response: I'd be surprised if both sides did not know where the other stands, as far as what it would take to get a deal done. If there's a huge gap, there's no use in negotiating. Honestly, I don't know where that stands. But I know the 49ers are not going to sign a guard for big-time money, regardless of whether he was the first pick in the second round of the draft. --Matt M.
It's a little hard to get excited about the idea of replacing a noted tub hound with a player who has appeared only sporadically over the past couple of seasons because of back problems. No surprises in his physical? A clean bill of health would constitute a surprise!
Matt - Would love to hear your thoughts on the recent Singletary interview on KNBR with the Razor and Mr. T. I thought it was pretty intense..
Matt, any chance he's signs a multi year deal? I'm assuming if he signs for say a 3 year deal it would perclude them from taking a tackle at #10.
I'm going to disagree here-although it is understandable that one would inquire about a player's character before paying him large amounts of money ... to me Stafford's response was wryly funny -and humor is as much an indicator of mental health as some psycobabble about "past buisness".These may be young men but they are men nonetheless.How a man acts is subject to public scrutiny -what he thinks is not (unless it becomes manifest.)!
I completely agree. What I found odd was this statement:
"If Stafford's intelligence scares off the team, perhaps it says more about the team than the quarterback."
Of course, I'm also not sure what his parents' divorce has to do with his ability to play football...
His parents' divorce may or may not affect his ability to concentrate on playing football. That's why teams ask a psychologist.
Comment: I'm going to disagree here-although it is understandable that one would inquire about a player's character before paying him large amounts of money ... to me Stafford's response was wryly funny -and humor is as much an indicator of mental health as some psycobabble about "past buisness".
My response: Completely understand. I don't think the 49ers were out of line, and I don't know exactly the context and tone of Stafford's comments. He probably was not offended in any way. He was probably just trying to be funny. I write things all the time in which I think I'm being funny. But when it shows up on this blog, some folks think I'm "reading somebody the riot act."
Bottom line -- and I should've stated this in response to the first question -- it's just not a big deal. Period. People are making too much out of the 49ers' part in this, and some people are reading too much into Stafford's comments.--Matt M.
1. Nobody including Stafford said he was miffed.
2. I bet a large amount they don't take a kicker, punter or long snapper at #10.
3. I bet a medium amount it won't be a QB either. They've already got a promising rookie in Alex Smith, why add another?
4. I bet a small amount it will be a lineman (O or D) regardless of whether Marvel is signed.
Matt- At some point, doesn't this idea of not paying Guards to stay on the team, good players mind you, hurt the 49ers? I mean, They lost Smiley, a homegrown solid player and drafter Rachal to take his place. Now they're going to let Baas go, and will have to spend another high drfat pick on Guard.
I guess what I'm saying is at some point, doesn't this process of drafting a guard every 3-4 years take a toll on your overall team. For instance, had we not had to take Rachal in the second round last season we might have been able to get a RT in the talent rich draft for that position. so now here we are a year later having to choose whether we should draft a RT or someone who can rush the QB. It's a domino effect, and I think it hurts the team when we could have resigned a player, we have extra money in the reserve but we don't just because of this dumb rule that doesn't seem to hold up. I haven't even gotten into the subject of continuity.
What are your thoughts on the whole thing?
Amen.
Question: Matt- At some point, doesn't this idea of not paying Guards to stay on the team, good players mind you, hurt the 49ers?
My response: I think teams can find serviceable guards at low prices, so I agree with the 49ers in theory about not spending too much on guards.
But where I don't think they're consistent is with the spending of high picks on guards. If they don't value guards, then why have they chosen guards high in the second round in two of the past four drafts?
If you draft a player that high, then go ahead and lock them up to long-term deals and don't let them reach the open market. It's silly to draft a player in the second round with the idea of just keeping him around for just four or five years. --Matt M.
Matt - I agree with you statement on the guards, but maybe they did not like what they had in the guards. Smile was a smallish quick pass protecting type guard that seems counter to what the Niners wanted. Bass was picked high but has really only gotten one season of solid work in and I think the Niners are still wondering what kind of player he is and if he does fit in the long term plan. Rachael seems like the perfect type of guard for this team and played well during his rookie year. If they let him walk after his current deal that would be concern, but I am ok with picking a guard in the 2nd or 3rd round because they still make less than the big money guards in free agency.
Matt,
One more thing with the Bass, guard talk. Singletary keeps saying he wants a smash-punch you in the mouth offense, then that means we need to keep a good more than serviceable-mean player such as Bass.
Matt-
I fully agree with your sentiments about the 49ers inconsistencies re: guards. Would you mind asking McCloughan about that during his pre-draft press conference?
Talking about WR Coaches, thye should talk to Rice. He's in the area and he expressed interest in coaching. What a great example.
Matt, I have an unrelated question. I don't know if the dates have been released for this seasons schedule, but do you know if the 49ers will have any prime time games, such as MNF, SNF, NFLN etc...?
Question: I don't know if the dates have been released for this seasons schedule, but do you know if the 49ers will have any prime time games, such as MNF, SNF, NFLN etc...?
My response: The dates and times for all NFL regular season games will be released soon. We don't know yet whether the 49ers will get prime-time games, but I'd imagine they won't get shut out completely. --Matt M.
You would think with the coverage that the team got towards the end of the year, and that MNF thriller with AZ, that some interest will be there. I'm thinking they'll get one. I bet it will be with the Cards again too. We'll see...
Exactly right, Matt, which leads to the next question... is not keeping the guards a strategy or is it player-related? Smiley fell off badly in 2007, had some truly awful games. It was all kind of mysterious from the outside; I never figured out if it was physical or mental. I'm thinking we let him go because of that wretched last season in his contract. My gues is, it had more to do with coaching, the way he was used / offense being run, and injury issues than a real lack of ability. Baas, OTOH, has underachieved his whole time here, partly due to injuries, but still. I can understand the team being reluctant to extend a guy who hasn't really earned it.
The proof will be in the pudding.. or more accurately, in how they deal with Chilo. If Rachal plays at a high level at guard, it makes NO sense to draft him high and then let him go. If he is a pro bowler, and I think he will be very soon, you've got to pay the kid. Especially if you want to be a team that runs 'when it wants to'... a team like that needs a Hutchinson / Faneca / Hannah / DeLamelleure type to clear the road.
I'd love to hear more from Trigger if he'll answer the question.
Merton,
If the 49ers do sign Marvel then I agree it puts the 49ers in a better position at the #10 spot & more importantly it eliminates the possibility of the 49ers "reaching" for an OT in the 1st round. From looking at ESPN Scout's Top 32 Player Prospects & if the 49er philosophy is "BPA" then it really narrows it down to a few players on both sides of the ball then. On defense OLB's Maybin & Everette Brown look to be the obvious. On offense it looks like WR Percy Harvin who looks to be an impact player, very exposive or RB Knowshon Moreno who can really give the 49ers a potent running game. Just look at the Giants & Panthers 2 headed monsters.
Matt, I don't suppose the medical report on Marvel is available to the media-just wondering if he would have to have gotten a clean bill of health for the Niners to sign him or if there could be some concerns within the report and the Niners still be interested.thanks
Orkapo just had his pro day. Looks like Ray Lewis. Somebody tell Smith that is what yur bdy should look like if you are going to take your shirt off. The guy was impressive. The Smith signing, if it happens, doesn't change the 9ers draft plans. What it should do is prevent us from reaching for a particular position
Too bad the 49ers won so many pointless games at the end of the season, otherwise they wouldn't be picking after the Packers, who will definitely pick Orakpo if he falls to 9.
Could the fact that Baas took too long to crack the lineup and the choice of Rachal last year in vitually the same slot indicate something?
My feeling is that Baas can't move and hit targets in space.
Rachal seems like a natural mauler who moves well in comparison to Baas and IMO Baas is a Comp pick im waiting.
See Wragge extension, see Duke Robinson, et al at 43, see Baas on FA market in 2010.
Buh Bye then.
Question Matt - Did you at some point indicate that potential FAs receive physical evals at Stanford?
If so, I gotta think they are considered an impeccable institution on which to base contract dollars?
I believe o-line chemiistry dictates that you step up and pay a quality guard.especially with emphasis on the run.Holmgren still blames his GM successer for destrying his team by trading Hutchinson.Notwithstanding the SB,the Steelers' o-line sucked with Faneca gone.They went to the pass and Big Ben nearly got killed.I don't think anyone would argue that Larry Allan wasn't a key force to Cowboys's success.Not paying to keep a quality guard is the ethic of a loser.
I think it comes down to someone earning the paycheck at that position.
Sadly the OTs command the bigger dollars and when trying to keep a Cap intact, everyone has a budget in mind on how the money is shared.
I like the depth this year for both positions, and see us spending high on OT, mid to late on OG.
We'll improve the chemistry with the youth movement, and a guy like Marvel would assist with some insurance time for development.
Relative to Larry Allen, completely agree truthpeddler, but there's always a shelf life on these guys.
I also think it's not too early to seek a replacement for Frank too.
RBs are always closer to a career ending injury then most guys on the field and should always have depth behind them.
Hey Matt does the April 1st date the Niners gave Bruce have anything to do with when Torry Holt comes back from his vacation? If not is there any interest in him or any other Wr out there?
"3. I bet a medium amount it won't be a QB either. They've already got a promising rookie in Alex Smith, why add another?"
I think you meant a promising third-year bench warmer who has yet to fulfill the expectations of a number one overall draft pick.
Regardless, I'm still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. The one parting gift from Nolan to Niner fans was deciding to sign Shaun Hill as a FA from the Vikings.
Question: Matt does the April 1st date the Niners gave Bruce have anything to do with when Torry Holt comes back from his vacation? If not is there any interest in him or any other Wr out there?
My response: No, April 1 is just an arbitrary date that coach Mike Singletary tossed out there. I suspect if Isaac Bruce needs more time, he'll be granted more time. This much should be certain: If Bruce has to take this long to determine whether he wants to play again, I think his heart is not in it. As for Holt, there might be some interest if Bruce does not return. --Matt M.
"I think it comes down to someone earning the paycheck at that position."
This is absolutely true, during the Smiley negotiations, McCloughin mentioned that he had underestimated the worth of OG's on the FA market. I don't think we can keep drafting OG's on the first day and letting them go after their rookie contract, it's just a waste of a draft pick. One thing is that Smiley didn't work in their idea of what an OG should be. I would hope they would develop and keep their own. that being said, if and when the 9ers finally draft an All-Pro at OG, I am sure they would pay him.
I am with you when it comes to the draft. The Smith signing gives us a lot of flexibility. my thought on who we draft changes, but I'll give it a shot.
Rd 1 - Defense (pass rush)- I would love to see Orkapo or Raji here, but Everette Brown or Larry English are also options that could fall to us. Either way, this major need for the team has to be addressed, even if we reach a bit at 10 for Brown or English. They won't be around for the second round, and I don't know if we will be able to move back.
Rd. 2 - RB - sounds weird, because we have Frank, but if we are going to go with an effective running attack, we need to upgrade the OL and get a second option/2back attack. Thomas Clayton is NOT the answer, he has had 2 years to get his act together and it seems that he can't crack the active roster. There may not be a huge number of teams looking for RB early. So if we aren't going to go with a big thumper that would be available in round 3/4, we can probably get a kid like Donald Brown or LeSean McCoy at the top of the second. If not, we'll look at picking up a RB on the second day.
Rd 3 - Here's where the Marvel Smith signing pays off. we can find a RT here that can be groomed to take over for Smith next year.
"Really, if there's a player at No. 10 that they like, they can take a QB, RB, WR, OL, DL, LB or DB. There is not a position they can't use. --Matt M."
If there's not a clear choice, I think they need to look at trading the pick and/or trading back. They'll save some money and fill more needs.
With tackle tentatively taken care of for the time being, and Lawson and Haralson about as good as anyone they'll find at 10, they should try to get a package of picks (a second and next year's first?) from a team targeting a player.
The best guard in the draft, Duke Robinson, should be there in the second round and would really bolster the line for Gore. What's more, he'll be needed since Marvel Smith, while good at pass protection, is no Andre Smith as far as the run goes.
Braylon Edwards should be on the block for a package of later picks as well and could thrive in a change of scenery.
Brandon Marshall, with his legal troubles and one year remaining on his rookie contract, could probably be had at a higher price than Edwards (if Cutler's on the block, why not Marshall?).
Both are legitimate number ones on any team, especially ours. I'd rather have Marshall than anyone who'll be there at 10.
Smiley was drafted by Donahue, was hurt for a couple of years, and was overpaid by Miami. We've replaced him with Rachal - major upgrade. Other than him, I can't think of a single OG the Niners, under Nolan or McC, have let walk away after playing out their rookie contract. Baas couldn't unseat Larry Allen or Heitman, then got hurt and didn't replace Snyder until Singletary took over. He has to prove his worth this year to expect the Niners to make a big investment in his future. It's the final year of his rookie contract and he has yet to start and play a full season. I think people read too much into one statement of McC about the "worth" of guards, not a philosophy of letting guards walk after their rookie contracts expire like a revolving door. And Hutchinson wasn't traded, he was a FA and Seattle couldn't match the deal because of its cap killing structure.
I'm not sure why people are saying Rachal is a major upgrade over anyone. Wragge actually played much better than Rachal. Chilo definitely has superior skills and his few devastating blocks while pulling are highlight reel blocks but he was not good in several games last year, the Miami game comes to mind right off the bat. He consistently missed assignments and was late on most of his kickout blocks. I chalk it up to being a rookie but he has a very long way to go before I'd label him an upgrade over anyone.
Braylon had a couple of good years, but is really not what the 9ers need at this point. He had a great 2007 (1289 yards and 16 TD's) but dropped off last year (800+, 3TD's). Basically he was less productive than Bruce and about the same as BJohnson with a couple more yards. He wants a new, big money contract, would be moving to a team with less QB talent and, most importantly LED THE LEAGUE in dropped passes. TO gets blamed for dropping a ton, but he dropped 10 and Edwards dropped 16.
We need those picks to build the team and that production can easily be bought cheaply in the FA market.
I dunno why everyone's all excited out Marvel Smith. He is basically Jonas Jennings all over again.
I'm pretty sure they had posted the MNF schedule not long back. The 49ers and Cards have a MNF football game scheduled.
Pretty sure Holt already signed with Minn....
Comment: Pretty sure Holt already signed with Minn....
My response: No, he has not signed with anyone. In fact, Torry Holt is taking his first free-agent visit today to meet with the Jacksonville Jaguars. --Matt M.
My bad....It was Glenn Holt that signed with Minn & I just saw the last name....Doh!!!!
Thanks OK, I sometimes get excited at internet rumors that the 9ers are going to sign Bill Montana and Sam Young to play QB ;)
Normally I would love the idea of the niners trading back and getting a few extra picks, but this year should be different. There are a lot of quality players around the 10 spot and someone is going to slip on draft day and we can go ahead and swoop in to get him.
We are not starting to build our team, the core is in place and we need to add some no nonsense talent. At whatever position. We do have 9 picks so there should be no problem filling in the gaps in the later rounds and making for competition.
we should trade up for Percy Harvin we need a game changer, we can't only rely on Gore......trade up from the 2nd round...
I like the ideas people have about trading up or trading back, but tell me what picks you are trading? oneniner, trading up from the 2nd back into the first round, say to #27, would take a minimum of the Niners 2nd and 3rd round picks, is that worth it to move up 15 spots?
You also have to remember, trading up is a lot easier then trading down. Not many teams want to sacrifice draft choices and a higher salary to jump up into the #10 spot.
I know many of you could care less, but here is what I'd like to see out of this draft (as the 49ers stand right now).
1-10-10 – Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi
2-11-43 – Larry English, DE/OLB, Northern Illinois
3-10-74 – Rashad Jennings, RB, Liberty
4-11-111 – Nate Davis, QB, Ball St.
5-10-146 – Jarrett Dillard, WR, Rice
5-35-171 – Jerraud Powers, CB, Auburn
6-11-184 – Anthony Parker, OG, Tennessee
7-10-219 – Stephen Hodge, SS, TCU
7-35-244 – Worrell Williams, ILB, Cal
Nice, but I think you gotta go FS w/ that 3rd or 4th pick.
sandip,
First of all Marvel hasn't signed yet so until that happens there's really nothing to talk about. Secondly, if the 49ers are fortunate to sign him worst case scenario is he would be a solid depth player at OT. Thirdly, how do you come to the conclusion that Marvel is another Jennings? Yes it's unfortunate Marvel has been injured the last 2 years but besides that this guy is a Pro Bowl player when healthy & he has Super Bowl experience. So tell me again how he's another Jennings?
I'd love that, the first 4 picks are awesome. Don't know jack about the last 5 except for Worrell Williams bc he went to my high school, played for Cal, and is DJ's brother.
FWIW, Here's my "wish list":
1-10-10 – Everette Brown, DE/OLB, FSU
2-11-43 – Duke Robinson, OG, Oklahoma
3-10-74 – Rashad Jennings, RB, Liberty
4-11-111 – Fenuki Tupou, OT, Oregon
5-10-146 – Quinn Johnson, FB, LSU
5-35-171 – Sammie Lee Hill, DT, Stillman
6-11-184 – Mike Reilly, QB, Central Washington
7-10-219 – Devin Moore, RB-KR, Wyoming
7-35-244 – Roy Miller, DT, Texas
FA- Worrell Williams, ILB, Cal
FA- Marko Mitchell, WR, Nevada
FA- Lendy Holmes, FS, Oklahoma
FA- Phil Trautwein, OT, Florida
FA- DeAndre Wright, CB, New Mexico
I like a lot of it, although I'm not a huge fan of drafting a OG before we get a RT on the roster. Love the R. Jennings and F. Tupou picks, and I was thinking about Q. Johnson too, but wasn't sure they'd want to pull the trigger on a FB. I also think the Sammie Lee Hill pick would be great, finally a true NT. Love D. Moore, but I think he'll get picked before the 7th. And with R. Smith moving to S, I think CB needs to be addressed a bit earlier then in FA.
Lots of holes. Might be more realistic to fill what we can this year, knowing some spots will have to be readdressed in 2010.
Like I said, its a "wish" list. Lots of those guys might or might not make it to those picks. Having all of them break our way would be like winning the lottery. Nice, but not something you should count on. ;)