NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock said the first thing the 49ers have to determine is whether there is a "franchise quarterback" they would select with the No. 10 overall pick. Mayock has USC's Mark Sanchez rated as his top quarterback, and worth of a top-10 selection.
Here's what Mayock had to say this morning about how the 49ers should be approaching the No. 10 overall pick:
"They have to decide whether or not there's a franchise quarterback that they want. If Sanchez is the guy they feel can be the cornerstone for their franchise, they have to do everything they can to get him. If not, if they feel comfortable with (Shaun) Hill or (Alex) Smith or Damon Huard, I think they have to look at the best player at No. 10 amongst the edge rusher group and the wide receiver group.
"I would anticipate if a Michael Crabtree or Jeremy Maclin was there, they'd have to look real hard at them and then you look at the defensive ends and outside linebackers. Brian Orakpo . . . I think it's too early for Aaron Maybin and for Larry English, probably Brian Cushing. I think you're looking at Orakpo. I doubt Aaron Curry is there, and the two wide receivers."
Q: If the 49ers don't think Sanchez is that franchise guy, will they be able to trade out of that spot?
Mayock: "Every team in the top 10 is looking to trade out. I've never seen a situation quite like this. And the theory is, everybody knows we're upside down with this draft. The rookies are getting paid way too much money proportionate to their value. So teams are scared to death to miss in the top 10. Here's what's happening, which I think is really interesting and I'm (eager) to see if this trend plays out: That old trade chart that all the teams used to use, it began to go out the window last year and I think, like the economy, it's completely out the window now.
"So I think any team in the top 10 that's looking to get out will listen to any reasonable offer. And more than ever, teams are looking to get down to (draft spots) 15 to 25 because you can get the same kind of player at 20 than you can at seven, and you pay one-third the money. Would the 49ers look to get out of there if one of those guys isn't there? Absolutely, especially if they can pick up an extra second-round pick or third-round pick."
Q: After those four offensive tackles you really like, after that what's out there? Are there other guys who can step in and start at right tackle for a team within the first three rounds?
Mayock: "There's probably eight offensive tackles that will go in the first two rounds. Last year we had eight go in the first round. The problem this year, after those eight, there's a drop off. I think there will be a run again on offensive tackles. They'll go earlier than they should, and other guys will get artificially pushed up."
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Here is some more of what Mayock had to say:
--There are three first-round QBs: Sanchez, Matthew Stafford and Josh Freeman.
--If the Broncos, owners of the No. 12 pick, don't try to get Sanchez, he thinks they're crazy.
--QB Pat White (
--QB Nate Davis (
--Mayock expects off-the-field issues to push WR Percy Harvin (
--The top three offensive tackles (Eugene Monroe, Jason Smith and Andre Smith) will go quickly. At the No. 9, Mayock said the Packers could go with that fourth offensive tackle, Michael Oher, or Texas DE/OLB Brian Orakpo of
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--Second day finds at offensive tackle are more difficult to find. He said Garrett Reynolds (North Carolina) in the fifth round, Florida's Phil Trautwein, who has some medical issues is a good pick in the fifth or sixth); Jason Watkins (Florida) is a good RT prospect, as is Gerald Cadogan (Penn State).
--After no WR went in the first round last year, a few will go this year. He listed Crabtree and Maclin at the top; Percy Harvin is sliding; and Darrius Heyward-Bey (
--Second-day finds at wide receiver, fourth or fifth round, are Johnny Knox (Abilene Christian), Jarett Dillard (Rice) and Deon Butler (
--Boston College's B.J. Raji has separated himself from the rest of the nose tackles because he is big enough and stout enough to play in a two-gap scheme, but he's also quick enough to provide up-field penetration to be a pass rusher. The other defensive tackles don't have that versatility. Peria Jerry (
--Ohio State DB Malcolm Jenkins is a "really good football player." The speed concerns have some merit. Some teams have him rated as the No. 1 free safety, other teams have him as the first or second corner. He said Jenkins could go as high as No. 5 to
--This is the best he has ever seen for the amount of 4-3 defensive ends in college who will transition to 3-4 outside linebacker. Aaron Curry (
--In breaking down Orakpo vs. Maybin . . . Orakpo is the only one who can play DE or OLB at the next level. He's better against the run. Maybin has a more explosive first step. He's a natural pass rusher, but he had trouble against the run in college. He should have remained in school. He sees Maybin selected in the 20-to-32 range.
--Mayock has DE Robert Ayers as the third-best player in the draft. He said three years from now, he will be the best defensive player to come out of this draft. Under the right defensive coordinator, Ayers could be used as a Justin Tuck-type player.
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Mayock's top 20 players for NFL draft
1, OT Eugene Monroe (
2, WR Michael Crabtree (
3, DE Robert Ayers (
4, RB Knowshon Moreno (Georgia)
5, TE Brandon Pettigrew (
6, OT Jason Smith (Baylor)
7, LB Aaron Curry (
8, OT Andre Smith (
9, DT B.J. Raji (
10, QB Mark Sanchez (USC)
11, DT Peria Jerry (
12, QB Matthew Stafford (
13, DE Tyson Jackson (LSU)
14, CB Malcolm Jenkins (
15, WR Jeremy Maclin (
16, QB Josh Freeman (
17, CB Darius
18, OT Michael Oher (
19, DE/LB Brian Orakpo (
20, RB Chris Wells (
Click here for more from Mayock on NFL.com
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Any truth to the rumor that the Niners are going after Brady Quinn? If so, what are they offering, do you think -- players or draft choices?
The Quinn rumor is apparently false. From the Chronicle website:
Word from Santa Clara is the 49ers are not the "mystery" team willing to offer up their first-round selection (no. 10 overall) for Browns quarterback Brady Quinn. Rumors ran rampant today that the 49ers wanted Quinn and were willing to part with their first-round choice to get him. Those rumors are apparently false.
It would be a foolish move anyway to trade for Quinn. Why would they? It's risky enough to use a high pick on a rookie QB who hasn't played a down in the NFL, but now you take one who has played downs and still hasn't proven anything?? NO THANKS to Brady Quinn. I'd rather do something much better than that with our first round pick. Heck, I'd rather have Sanchez than trade for Quinn.
hoping we trade up to 7 to get raji before the pack or the jags get their hands on him. kid is a game changing NT talent and we might not have the picks or opportunity to draft someone of his caliber after this year
Matt, roughly how much money does a #10 selection get paid? Does it vary by position?
And if you don't mind, how much does the #9 and # 11 get?
Personally I like Tim Tebow for next year. I think he is a unque college best football player. He has it. The Desire & leadership to win. He wills his team to win and everyone plays better around him. Sort of a Bart Starr. Maybe he doesn't have all the intangibles but he has IT!. I hope the NFL all thinks he will be a bust, because we can draft him. He will be Singletary's Jim McMahon only without the antics.
I love me some Tebow. He's a gamer. Wonder if he will still be a QB in the NFL.
It would be great if 1 of the teams before the 49ers feels the same way about DE Ayers as Mayock does. It would definetly give the 49ers a better chance to snag Raji.
Here's a link to all the first round contracts from 2008. I head an agent say (on the Dan Patrick Show) that he expects a min of a 4% increase per year in salary, but QB's throw that out of whack. He also said that the higher picks get a bigger increase each year in total and guaranteed money.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d808c2409&template=with-video&confirm=true
I think people see Ayers as much more of a 4-3 DE, so it depends on the system.
I insist, the best would be to trade down. However, after reading to Mayock comments, it sounds as it will be difficult to do that.
If that is the case, really the possibilities are too many at this point.
Crabtree, Maclin as WR
Smith, Oher as RT
Brown, Orakpo as OLB
Raji as NT (what I don't like about this one is that we spent last draft 1st pick on a DE, but Raji can justify another DL 1st pick I think)
Just please don't get a QB on the 1st, and get one later
Matt: Does anybody keep track of what the draft "experts" say before the draft and compare it with what actually happens both in the draft and in the players' careers? It all seems like so much baloney.
Yes he definetly is 4-3 DE & there's a few teams before the 49ers that could be interested in him.
Great interview of Jed York by The Razor and Mr. T - Wow, the more I hear from Jed the more I want and Ralph was not his usually skeptical anti-York anti-49ers self, instead heaping him with praise and respect:
http://www.knbr.com/pages/razormrt
I would love to see the 49ers trade down to the end of the round and end up with a 3 "second-round talents" instead: Ron Brace, Phil Loadholdt, and Clint Sintm. Those 3 look like they are going to be good NFL starters for a long time.
Mike,
If you liked the KNBR interview with Jed then you'll be very impressed with this transcript from Lowell Cohn's interview with Jed in November.
http://blog.pressdemocrat.com/cohn/2008/11/jed-york-transcript.html
Being realistic I just can't see Raji getting past GB if he even gets there. So the guys likely to fall to us I'm guessing is Oher, Jenkins, possibly Maclin & EBrown.
Oher at Mayock's #18 & 4th rated OT is a bit of a reach but I'm good with that. He's getting back to top 10 form & with some Singletary discipline & motivation he could turn out to be an outstanding RT then LT. I consider him a safe pick. Another safe pick for me is Jenkins at Free Safety.
I still like Brown but am uneasy about him being undersized & what I've heard that FL STATE DL/DE's haven't been panning out. Love the quickness though + has ALL the pass rush moves & since we're desperate for a #1 pass rusher he's still on my list.
It would be awesome to trade down get an additional pick & snag Larry English in the lower 1st. Remaining wish list is to get Donald Brown in the 2nd RD, & Fenuki Tupou in the 3rd. Doubt we're gonna snag a QB for the reasons Matt already broke it all down but for the record I'm a big Sanchez fan. Another safe pick for me is my man REY MAUALUGA in the lower 1st then you could go pass rusher 2nd RD, RB or OT 3rd & 4th RD.
I'd trade up and get Curry. I think he's the the one "can't miss" player in the draft. Then we'd have the best LB core for the next few years. Nobody would be able to run on us. Nobody.
I agree it would be out of character for McC to trade UP, but if he is open to considering, this draft might present an opportunity. If so many other teams want to trade down, the cost to trade up might not be very high. Let's say we don't lose a pick, we just swap other picks and move down in a later rounds. In addition, the guaranteed money drops dramatically from say 5 to 10 (from $23 to 14 million), which would be a good incentive to trade down for a team with cap concerns (but not an issue for the Niners if they really want someone). If McC's top overall guy in this draft (whoever he is) is still there at 5 or 6, would he pull the trigger?
Curry is a great player, but he wasn't asked to be a pass-rusher. I think he is a 4-3 SAM, rather than a 3-4 rush OLB. He is a great athlete and will be a great pro. They said Willis would have problems playing a 3-4 and he did great. We might have to give up quite a bit to get into the top 3, and if we are going up there, you should spend the $ on LT.
Teams that are in front of the 49ers are not going to trade down for anything less than an additional 2nd round pick & even a player. It's just not very smart or realistic to do that when the 49ers have several needs.
Surprise pick at number 10 for the 49ers: Vontae Davis. Doooo iiiiiit.
Anyone who has a twitter, I just started one for the purpose of talking draft. I'll admit I stole the idea from Matt, but I've been spending a lot of my spare time studying prospects and draft projections, and I thought this would be cool to do. I'm thinking about pursuing a career in mass communications & journalism, so I'd like to see how this little project goes. Feel free to add me and drop me a line:
http://twitter.com/BigM_DraftTalk
Surprise pick....Ya I'll say. Not going to happen.
Intriguing. The 09 version of Donte Whitner.
For giggles, let's make the other 31 NFL teams on draft day scratch their heads and exclaim "WTF?"
Nice interview although I expected a little more if I understood you correctly that you spent 2 hours with Mr. Mayock. The guy is a natural in breaking down players from film. He absolutely knows what he's talking about and the fact that he played the games adds to his credibility. I think the chances of good fortune falling into our lap at pick 10 is better than 50/50. I for one cannot wait. Pizza, Amstel light and the NFL Draft. How sweet it is baby.
The NFL has a draft point chart which gives the relative value for each draft pick, I think Matt posted it before. Moving up into the top 10 draft is very expensive.
Razoreater - Amstel Light? That's what you get after you drink a Sam Adams!
Run don't walk away from the 10 spot! Trade it and trade it NOW!!
The money for these kids now days is insane. 40 mill of something you don't even know about.
Thanks for the link F49er, I did see that interview. What I love is that he was not afraid to go on KNBR this past Monday when everyone in the Bay Area knows how critical Ralph is of the York. For that reason alone, I found that to be a great interview. Jed is VERY passionate about this team and will be tireless in trying to get this all right ASAP.
Yeah Curry can be a 4-3 SAM but why keep him only to that side of the field? He's the BEST ALL AROUND LB prospect...I'd stick him in at MLB & let him go after the ball a la PW. Control everything & anything in the middle on the ground or in the air. Curry's gonna be a beast!
would you give a first rounder up for this man?
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4071716
They wouldn't trade him inside of the division. Period. Although, I would gladly give a first rounder.
I agree that he is going to be great. My concern is that you would trade a bunch to get up there, have to pay him a lot of dough and tell him to smash into blockers to free up Willis. There are a lot of people out there that think TED's are easy and cheap to come by. If he's there though, I would take him in a heartbeat. That would be a great LB corps. Pairing him with Willis and a cover guy like Lawson. Let the coaches figure it out.
All joking aside, I could see the Niners taking Vontae Davis at some point (not 10).
Reasons:
-Mayock thinking Vontae has top-10 talent means he probably does.
-Coach Sing loves Vernon, why not Vontae?
-Who better to get a player with "issues" in line than his big brother?
-By all appearances, we have no one groomed to take over for Harris when the time comes
If he slides to us in round 2, I think we'd be lucky to have him.
Hey Matt why would the 49ers draft Michael Oher for? Wouldnt he just be a backup player for us? Im tired of this team drafting players that have zero impact in the first round. We need play making players not guys that wear a baseball cap on the sidelines, especially since we didnt get a big name free agent. Mayock didnt have good things to say about Oher either looks like another Kwame Harris to me.
He is supposed to be one of the top corners in the draft but is sliding because of off-field "issues". Besides being benched for a poor work ethic, what are the issues?
Marco, No the NFL does not have a draft trade chart. One NFL coach came up with an idea to make up a draft chart with values and I believe it was Dallas coach Jimmy Johnson (could be wrong on the coach but not the story). Since then, yes, it has been used, more or less as the main guidebook, but it is not set in stone nor is it sanctioned by the NFL. Point being, it is not an official NFL document. SO since it is not official, things can change, just as Maylock said above:
"Mayock: "Every team in the top 10 is looking to trade out. I've never seen a situation quite like this. And the theory is, everybody knows we're upside down with this draft. The rookies are getting paid way too much money proportionate to their value. So teams are scared to death to miss in the top 10. Here's what's happening, which I think is really interesting and I'm (eager) to see if this trend plays out: That old trade chart that all the teams used to use, it began to go out the window last year and I think, like the economy, it's completely out the window now."
Jon - I'm a big fan of Curry but I totally agree we should not be trading up for ANY player IMO period. We can't afford it. We need all our picks & as many as we can get to shore up our many holes & get younger/stronger/faster.
I posted this a while back but Curry is not a fit for our team. His strong suit is he's a great ALL AROUND LB. He's a MIKE LB & we already have a franchise one. He's too light at TED weighing only 240 lbs, not durable enough to take the constant pounding. That's why I want Maualuga if we go LB. His college position is SAM OLB which is Manny's spot. We're not giving up on him yet. And he's not a 100% pass rusher where we're looking for that #1 WILL RUSH LB. I love his talent but he's not a fit for us.
Yes,
Vontae has all the physical tools to be a great player unfortunately what's under the hood is not all there. As Jon in SoCal mentioned the guy is slipping towards the back of the 1st round. He lacks consistancy & discipline. Anyways by the time the 49ers pick in the 2nd round he'll be gone.
Whoever mentioned the thought of moving up to get Curry makes no sense at all. Yes, he's gonna be a great player but we already have one of those in PW. Curry is not a position of need plus it would cost wayy to much for a player that we already have. No way that happens. Let's keep the focus on the players we don't have like NT Raji.
I just like the fact that Boldin will be out of Arizona so we don't have to see that guy twice a year. The guy does heavy damage to us everytime we meet. When he does get traded I'm going to celebrate with an Amstel Light!
I wouldn't be so quick to say the LB group isn't a position of need. I agree with the premise that moving up to get Curry is a bad idea as his natural position is currently occupied by a perennial pro bowler and our OL needs much more help than the LB's. Also, there are more pressing needs on the team so LB should be 3rd on the list. Having said that, I do think the 9ers need more playmakers in the LB group. The group is good but not great. The guys complimenting PW might be able to make a great unit but the jury is still out. I remember an interview with Belichick a few years back and one of his draft philosophies was that you can never have enough good LB's when running a 3/4 defense. I tend to agree with that philosophy.
Agreed Houston,
But if your the 49er Brass you have to look at what's the most pressing need now, I think the LB corp will be fine for right now. They can always come back in next years draft to get more talent there. As you know, you're not going to be able to fill every need in a draft unless your the Steelers of Patriots.
Agreed. Get him away from us!
That would be an early Christmas if Raji falls to us. I'll be switching from Sam Adams to a few celebratory Remy VSOP shots if that happens (think I just heard the Draft starts at 4pm Eastern??) After Raji I'm not high on his teammate Brace who'll go 2nd RD. 2 strong athletic but raw 6-3 330 lb NT's to keep our eyes on is Chris Baker/Hampton & Sammy Lee Hill/Stillman. If we're lucky one will still be there in the 5th RD.
Good post from Houston 9er. Lots of eyes on Manny this year. Hopefully he can finish his breakthrough now that he's back 100% healthy. We're looking forward to him FINALLY getting his opportunities to be used the way we drafted him for TO GO AFTER THE QB. Kudos to him getting the necessary extra bulk/muscle. That would really be something if he could succeed the way Franklin did by using him properly. How the heck are you gonna know if he's a successful rusher if you constantly have him pass covering? If he can become that stud player/pass rusher we envisioned we can cross another LB off the list. But I agree our LB core is good not great. PW badly needs a stud NT to let him freely roam to the ball, a younger explosive TED next to him, & that badly needed legit #1 WILL rush LB.
I agree. Just saying it wouldn't be bad to possibly go after a guy we can groom to be the next Ted LB in the 3rd or 4th round. It will be interesting to see if the 9ers stick to the BPA philosophy in the 1st round if Curry slips, which is obviously unlikely.
Tim Tebow=Matt Leinhart except WORSE, Clipboard Matt and Headset Tim
I believe Curry is the BPA in the whole draft so go get him. Risk on him not panning out is real low (once again in my opinion) whereas everyone else has a significant chance of not making it. Typically about half the first rounders will and half won't.