Tonight -- coincidentally, it was right around bed time for the kids -- I took part in a live chat with the fans who gathered at 49erswebzone.com and 49ersparadise.com. Thanks to my wife for handling the tucking-in duties without me.
Here are some excerpts from the chat. The full transcript can be read at 49erswebzone.
Q: Would you consider Maclin a good value at 10? Chances of the Niners taking him?
Questions about the receivers, Morgan and Hill, as well as the chances the Jags' signing of Torry Holt will impact their pick at No. 8 . . .
Answer: Josh Morgan was seen as a No.1 type receiver before all of his physical problems. Hill has always just been in a battle (no pun intended) to get on the field. . . . I have the Jags taking Orakpo, so I don't see WR as a must-get for them in Round 1 . . .
Q: when do you think Thomas Clayton will get an opportunity to play in a regular season game? Who will be the #2 RB? Robinson, Clayton, Draft?
Q: Question why people think the 49ers would pass on Sanchez, as well as question about Alex Smith's performance at minicamp.
Answer: The reason there is a question whether the 49ers would take Sanchez is because there is doubt whether he could be of any help this season. I think the 49ers would take a step backward if they were to draft a rookie QB in the first round. I'm not sure how much the decison-makers are thinking about this, but what if there's a work stoppage in 2011? That's about the first season that you could expect a QB selected this season to contribute. My best guess is that Shaun Hill will begin the season as the starter. He's done enough to win the job. As for a report that Smith didn't look good in minicamp, that -- in my opinion -- was a little off the mark. The guy was throwing his first live passes since early September. I thought the minicamp was a great success for Smith to get back on the field and start the process of knocking off the rust.
Q: What jumps out at you when you see the schedule?
Answer: The thing that stands out is that three of the 49ers' first four games are against NFC West opponents. That should be a great barometer.
Questions about ranking Raji, Andre Smith and Michael Oher. . .
Answer: I talked to someone with an NFL team today. (Not the 49ers.) He told me that he knows of some teams that have taken Raji off their draft boards. I don't know that the 49ers have gone to that extreme, but I can see them being pretty cautious, considering the huge money that would be going his way. Personally, I think the 49ers would not be disappointed if Raji were selected in the first nine picks. I think, probably, Andre Smith would be ranked ahead of Oher.
Q: Matt, I want to get your thoughts on Michael Oher and Malcolm Jenkins. Would it not be more beneficial to pick a player that is the best overall pick among CB and S, instead of picking the 4th best OT?
Q: Why do you not think that
Q: Matt, do you think that McDonald's knee injury is more serious than let on and how does this affect the Niners in the Draft?
Q: In what round did the Press Democrat draft you?
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Wow Matt! I thought Everett Brown has one of the best first steps I've ever seen. Funny thing is, I've read from multiple sources that Brown has a first step as quick as Freeney.
I have to agree with Matt concerning Brown. How many Florida State lineman have excelled in the NFL?
Razoreater -
A very common argument is the lack of pedigree Florida State has at DE/OLB. Unfortunately, when that argument is mentioned, the name Peter Boulware is curiously absent...
Peter Boulware - Defensive Rookie of the Year, 4 Pro Bowl appearances, 493 tackles, 70 sacks.
Nice pull phlysac. That was a ways back though. Drafted in 1997. Still being an E Brown fan I needed that. They have similar measurables & both are known for their quickness. Boulware 6-4, 255 lbs. Brown 6-1, 255. Hopefully Brown can put FL STATE DE's back on the map!
Just wanna chime to point out something interesting: with a lot of the "roundtable" draft ballots (i.e. by rotating fan reps or draft gurus), there wasn't any big run on the DE/OLBs in the top round as many individual mocks dictated.
Only Orakpo & Everette seem to be consensual locks within the group &, to me, it's the Tyson Jackson's & the Ron Brace's who're challenging them respectively with the suitors.
IMO The spur with the outside pass-rushers is set more in early R2, where teams who didn't wanna pay a top 10 contract earlier shall be freer to choose. Maybe late R1, if vet-stocked teams are willing to draft potential (Ayers, Barwin, Michael Johnson) & then patiently develop.
I also see Laurinaitis possibly freefalling (ala Posluszny, Dan Connor) as an indirect casualty of this.
6-3 and over seems pretty arbitrary. LeMarr Woodley is 6-2, and not particularly explosive. But he had a ton of 3-4 experience coming out of college as a rush LB and has done really well. Sintim, who is also
Glad you've come around to Maclin, Matt. He's a great talent.
I hate to sound negative, but if we draft defensively (within the first round), it'll be another mediocre pick (that is unless something freaky happens and we land Aaron Curry).
Jeremy Maclin would be a worthless pick at the first round, he'll be nothing more than a kick returner within NFL standards. -Kenny Britt is terribly underrated, and easily the best WR in the draft, he has the Randy Moss/T.O. size and composure, hard guy to take down once he gets the ball.
Thanks for answering my question. One.
Virus,
I was going to jump all over that nonsense. Although I wouldn't pick Brown either in the 1st round Woodley is a good example about over-hyping hieght, but what about his counter part on the other side? James Harrison is only 6' so I think the hieght argument is weak. The bottom line is if a player has the "it" factor to rush the passer you get him. This isn't a beauty pagent.
Hey Matt-Anything new from the Niners local pro day last week? Can you share anything or have you heard what went down?
Glad to hear Baldinger and I are on the same page with regards to the feeling that the 49ers need an offensive playmaker. My first choice as you all know was Percy, but after his brainfart I am opening up to the idea of Maclin. If he were to be available I think indeed the 49ers will pull the trigger on him. If not, would the risk be too great to trade down & get Harvin? Maybe Heyward Bey?
If you watch the highlight tapes on youtube of both Everette Brown and Orakpo, you'll see Brown has far superior rush moves. All Orakpo does is speed rush to the outside and he beats a slow tackle. I never saw him rip, swim, club, spin to get to the QB. Brown seems to already have an array of moves, and, he does have a burst. I don't see why he must be over 6'3" in order to excel. If you look at the top pass rushers, a large percentage were taken in the 1st round. Pass rushers don't often get "it" later in their career. They are dominate pass rushers in high school, college, and then in the NFL. To wait until the 2nd or 3rd to get a guy who might end up being above avergage seems crazy to me. The 9ers weakness was not being able to get off the field on 3rd down. We couldn't get enough pressure on the QB and he'd always find a short receiver who'd pick up just enough yards to pick up the first. They desperately need a pass rush.
If you want "impact" players in the first round, QB's and WR are NOT the way to go. Typically these guys, if they don't flame out, take at least a year to be productive (esp if you are looking for a #1 WR). That's why OT is such a demand, they rarley fail at making the team if you kick them inside to guard and they rarely make it to the market.
If you follow the logic that Florida State pass rushers fail in the NFL, then we'd have to pass on Orakpo because Texas players have a very high failure rate overall as well. And to go further, then we might as well take Malcolm Jenkins because Ohio State DB's have a huge success rate. I just don't totally follow that logic. A player is a specific player and should be treated individually. imo
What are the chances the 49ers find a day one cornerback?
I think there are literally 10 receivers in this draft who could pan out -- or flame out. It's always a bit of crap shoot at this position (see drafting John Taylor in middle rounds vs. Rashaun Woods in R1; Colston in late rounds vs. Troy Williamson in R1; etc.). Who's to say that once they hit the NFL, Kenny Britt at 6'4" with 4.5 speed and great hands won't turn into Plaxico II, while Maclin turns into the next Ted Ginn, Jr.? I would pass on a WR in R1 and fill other needs at RT or NT first, depending on who's still on the board. I believe at least one or two of those 10 WRs will be there in R3; and with young Morgan and Hill, Jones, and vet Bruce alerady on the roster, I'm comfortable waiting until the third round. In R2, I'd rather grab a pass rushing OLB, a FS or a better back-up for Gore, depending the value available at that spot.
Considering day 1 is now only 2 rounds, not very good I suppose.
Matt: I hope you are right about teams taking Raji off their boards ! If they are foolish enough to throw away a top NT like him (something very,very hard to find and something the Niners have needed very badly for many years), then that is great news for the Niners ! With Raji we have a top 5 defense,without him we have to hope that Soap steps up big time ,because Franklin just can't do the job of a real 3-4 NT.
Thanks again Matt for the live chat last night !
You have a point however I'm not a big believer in coincidences' either. I don't like Orakpo at 10 regardless.
Matt. You and others have reported about the eagerness to trade picks this Saturday. Does this mean that it will be a long draft as most of teams will max out their allotted times dealing?
Comment: Wow Matt! I thought Everett Brown has one of the best first steps I've ever seen. Funny thing is, I've read from multiple sources that Brown has a first step as quick as Freeney.
My response: Peter King, obviously, is very well connected around the league. Here is what I see he wrote . . .
"5. I think I'd like to apologize to you, Everette Brown. I don't have you in my mock draft for SI this week, and I fully expect you to be picked ... somewhere. I can't figure out where, and too many people in the bottom 20 of the round found too many holes in Brown."
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/peter_king/04/20/draft/4.html
--Matt M.
Peter King seems to be very well connected, but, this time of year, you have to wonder how much of his info is smokescreens given to him so that he then spreads the word. Because he said that in his very popular Monday piece, if the Niners did take him with #10, our draft grade would then be a D because we "reached" with our pick. Even though King can't name the holes in Brown's game. King strikes me as the guy who talks to everyone and then paraphrases what they say, but doesn't actually watch all the games and can make his own opinion. The few times he discusses the Niners, I often feel he is off base and isn't well connected with the team or it's depth chart.
Peter King is a tool. He may have the skinny on some things during the season be he clearly is over his head in attempting to evaluate college players in the NFL draft. It's not his forte so I would ignore everything he has to say about the draft.
A big issue with Everette Brown were his jump numbers at the Combine. Most of the DE/OLB "tweeners" are merely projected to 3-4 OLB and the teams have to look closely to see who has the athletic qualities necessary to make the transition. Brown's jump numbers, which are indicative of athletic explosion, were so drastically inferior to the other prospects that teams may question whether Brown has already reached his ceiling athletically.
Matt, If Andre Smith and Raji are on the board at 10, who do you pick between the two?
Also, I saw a College Football Competition on ESPNU yesterday and they had Graham Harrell, Chase Daniels, Hunter Cantwell, and Nate Davis.
Of them all, I was impressed by Harrell's accuracy, but since he played spread offense, I think I would lean toward Nate Davis although throwing without the laces seemed weird to me, but he was pretty accurate and had the strongest arm.
Also, Ramses Barden of Cal Poly was pretty impressive in size and skill as well as Joaquin Iglesias of Oklahoma among the WRs.
Traj
Could not be more wrong regarding Everette Brown, the guy has an amazing first step, he has all the tools to be a premier OLB in a 3-4. If you are going to use Peter King as your source for draft analysis you should just quit now. I mean that is an embarrassing statement to say he doesn't have an elite first step. Also when referring to his height that only applies to a guy trying to play as a DE, for an OLB in a 3-4 his size is just fine and that's where he would play if drafted.
PHX -
I really don't think Matt is infering that Everette Brown won't be a good player. He is simply using what he has heard and read to make an assumption that Everette Brown has slid on many team's draft boards. He mentioned height and burst. Being 6'1" won't prevent him from being a good 3-4 OLB but it will hurt his stock. He may have a quick first step, but that's different than an explosive first step. An explosive first step is a combination of speed and strength. As I mentioned earlier, the best guage of explosion is the Vert and Broad jumps. Brown scored significantly lower than the other top 3-4 OLB prospects in that regard. Does any of this mean he will fail? Not at all, but these are things that keep a player from being drafted highly.
Question: If Andre Smith and Raji are on the board at 10, who do you pick between the two?
My response: I think the 49ers would take Smith. --Matt M.
It all depends on who requires a bigger bra! Hahaha. Have you seen the man boobs on those two? LOL. All kidding aside though, I don't think physique is as important in the NFL as some people will lead you to believe. That's what worries me about Orakpo. Could he be a Defensive version of Vernon Davis? A freak in the weight room but not so dominant on the field once he gets to the NFL.
Last night on Path to the Draft, Lombardi listed Everette Brown as a guy he saw falling, too small to play DE in 3-4, and his "team sources" were telling him they were unsure he could transition to a 3-4 OLB. With his close ties to the Patriots, how do we know he isn't just floating misinformation for a friend, in hopes of getting their guy to fall. They are in business, trading a favor such as reporting a guys deficiencies, in exchange for an inside scoop on a future breaking story doesn't seem so far fetched.