QB + Mystery = Easy decision
Coach Mike Singletary did not announce a leader -- or any preference whatsoever - in the great 49ers Quarterback Competition of 2009. And most impartial onlookers can't say that one quarterback distinguished himself over the other in the exhibition opener Friday night.
That means one thing.
It means that Round 1 went to Shaun Hill.
As Singletary said, Hill is "less of a mystery" at this point than Alex Smith. Hill has started 10 NFL games the past two seasons since Smith last suited up for a meaningful game. It's never a great idea to have a mystery at quarterback.
Smith must erase every shred of doubt -- or mystery -- from Singletary's mind. And he does not have much time to do it.
I've believed Smith had to clearly outperform Hill during the exhibition games to win the starting job. When camp began, the onus was on Smith to outperform Hill. If both quarterbacks play at about the same level during the games, Hill is likely to get the nod.
While Singletary did not throw around excessive praise for either quarterback after Friday's game, he did say he will be comfortable with whoever wins the competition.
Smith has looked very good during training camp. In previous seasons, he probably would've already been named the starter. But the good news for 49ers fans is Hill is also playing as well as I've seen him.
Even into the first week of training camp, I had my questions whether Hill could fit Jimmy Raye's offense. It is essential that the quarterback be able to get the ball down the field to keep defenses from stacking the box against the 49ers' power-running game. Hill is showing more and more every day that he can do that.
Hill does not throw the deep ball as well as Smith, but he has a very good gauge on his own strengths and weaknesses. He has exceptional timing - a clock inside his head - with good anticipation on his deep throws. He's more apt to "throw a receiver open," as opposed to waiting until the receiver breaks into the clear before letting the pass fly.
Also, the screen pass figures to be a staple of this offense, and Hill is very good at putting the ball where it needs to be. Smith, coming off season-ending shoulder surgeries the past two seasons, is still feeling his way with those touch passes.
If Hill goes ahead and wins the starting job, it is certainly not the end of the line for Smith. In fact, I believe the 49ers have never been as high on Smith - since he came to the team - than they are right now.
Smith is signed for this year and next, at reasonable backup money. Smith will get an opportunity at some point. Let's not forget, he is 25 years old. And he has placed himself into position to succeed when that chance arises.




Matt. I read your posts every day. Forget to thank you for your great coverage. Much appreciated to say the least. Your synopsis of the QB competition is spot on. In any case, it is nice to know we have a capable backup waiting in the wings. Being from SD, I have been pulling for Alex, but Sean is quite capable of leading the team.
What is your take on Jason Hill? Is he being outperformed or has he taken some steps backwards?
Any prognosis on when Tarell Brown will get back on the field? If our pass rush isn't there yet, we at least need our secondary in good health.
Matt,
I mentioned this in an earlier post. I'm confused by Singletary's lukewarm review of the QB's. It looked to me like they each did what was asked of them pretty well on Friday. It shouldn't be thier fault that the gameplan really didn't give the QB's a chance to separate themselves. If both QB's have a rating of 118+, it would seem that he should be happy with the performance, even if no clear separation was achieved.
It's the first time that I've felt Singletary to be disingenuous this year? Am I off base?
"with good anticipation on his deep throws. He's more apt to "throw a receiver open," as opposed to waiting until the receiver breaks into the clear before letting the pass fly"
...this is a joke right.....
If yu are commenting on the first pass to V.Davis - Sure he threw a nice pass
.....the second pass to Davis is exactly why Hill should not be the QB.....He threw the ball to Davis when he was covered by 3 Broncos players - i don't think that was a smart pass.....
"It is essential that the quarterback be able to get the ball down the field to keep defenses from stacking the box against the 49ers' power-running game. Hill is showing more and more every day that he can do that."
...Cmon give me a break - WHERE IN THE GAME DID HILL DO THIS - FOR CHRIST SAKE HE HAD 2 short PASSES IN THE GAME...
1 when davis was opened - the second when Davis was triple covered
From Singletary on Shaun Hill:
"He's great at managing the game. You know he can manage a game, but he can also throw the ball downfield. ... How consistent, and on what basis? That's something we still have to look at, but we pretty much know what's there."
Looks like the writing is on the wall... Unless Alex pulls a rabbit (or two) out of his hat, Hill will be the starter :-)
Hill's 2 "short passes" went for more yards than all five of Smiths throws.
Heck, I bet Hill's scramble went for more yards than any of Smith's passes.
I really just want the QB who gives us the best chance to win on the field.
I wish that was your goal.
Great assessment, Matt. Thanks for all your hard work during training camp, and the preseason. I like both Hill and Smith, and will support either one. Hill looks more relaxed and in-control when he is on the field. I thought Alex looked better than he had in the past, but not as good as Hill. I agree that there is still some mystery with Alex, whereas we know what Hill brings to the team. With that in mind, I agree with you that Hill will be the starter for the regular season. Many of the questions we still have about Alex can't be answered in training camp, and the exhibition season. Hill has proven he can get it done in the regular season. We need winners! And, Hill is a proven winner (7-3). So, what is Singletary waiting for? And, what are the pros and cons of waiting until preseason game #3 to make that decision? Wouldn't it be best to make that decision ASAP?
"Shaun Hill will win games for us." --Takeo Spikes
Hill needs to be the starter. People talk about how Smith has all the "tools" but if you don't have "it" you just don't! I am a long time niners fan and I am pulling for Smith a lot. We all want him to succeed but he just doesn't have "it". I don't see it. He looks hesitant and he always has. I know it's the first preseason game, but ask yourself this question. Did Shaun Hill do anything that disapointed you on Friday night? With no Frank Gore and no Issac Bruce he looked pretty good. The sack was Keasy's fault (who btw got blown up by a LB) and the other was Hill's. I just think the team really responds well to him. With Hill the 49ers are a better team.
I think it is very clear Hill will be the starter unless there some dramatic improvement in Smith's play in the next two games. However whether Hill remains the starter depends on his performance during the season. I like Coach a lot, but do we really have Team Talent? That remains to be answered. They must be better than 7-9 this year. The NFC West is improving and I only expect one team to make the playoffs so we must win the west.
This is Hill's seven year after graduating college and he has just started 9 games I believe. The odds against him being a special NFL QB are long. Smith definitely is the more talented than Hill, but Hill produces. In the long run sitting behind Hill might be the best for Smith's long term prospects.
Both of them appear to be good friends and competitors.
Excellent assessment. I think you've hit the nail firmly on the head.
I believe that Singletary prefers Hill as the starting QB, but the Niner organization "in general" really want Smith to be the starter, in part to justify the waste of the #1 pick. QB ranking should be Hill, Huard, Smith. The decision should come next week, after the next game.
Matt, I don't see it. Alex Smith looks uncomfortable and hurried every time he drops back to pass. Some QB's make it look ease, Alex still makes everything look hard. Look at the botched screen pass. If Nate Davis had thrown that I'd have chuckled, knowing that it is a rookie mistake caused by nervousness. If Huard had thrown it I'd have said, "That's why this guy is a permanent backup."
I agree with those who think Singleterry and the organization want it to be Smith. I think they are going to give him every opportunity to win the job. I also don't see that he really has the ability to make quick decisions and make big plays when things break down, and I think that's a key ability, which Hill seems to have. I wouldn't be surprised if Smith is the guy, but I also think it will be a mistake, if it happens.
For those of you commenting on Smith being 'uneasy', 'uncomfortable', 'hurried', etc. Keep in mind that he hasn't seen live game action (while healthy) in almost two years. IMO, it'll take some time for him to get back into 'game shape'. At this point, he could almost be treated as a rookie. Any QB in the NFL would look this way after being out for such an extended period of time.
Aloha Matt;
If Alex Smith had been a third round draft pick, we would not be having this conversation, he would have been let go long ago. All the talk of Alex's potential sounds great for guy coming out of school, but like it or not Alex has a body of work to look at and He is what he is. It is true, Shaun Hill is not pretty but he wins. In professional sports it is winning that counts. It is time for coach Singletary to name the starter and get this team ready for the season.
oneniner,
Try anger management. It might help your condition
It might be that there is no offense and no coach that can teach Alex to throw on rhythm during games. Maybe all that will change against the Raiders.
Where are those people that jumped on the Niners for going after Warner? Regardless of what happened, it was a move they needed to make. as of now Hill is the starter by default. he is no better than a second or third stringer. sadly, that is what we have right now after two HOF's qb. I miss Garcia right about now. We will again have high (2) draft choices next year and may be a real QB? People, plz, these are not B.Ravens. They can not win w/these qb's. Sometimes you have to see the similarity between hope and fantasy.
Hill should be the starter barring any colossal collapse. As stated Smith will get his turn but for now he is not ready. It will do him good to do clipboard duties while he perfects things like leadership,mechanics,pocket presence. I want to see a more physical DL against the Raiduhs. If we do not generate a pass rush against their line it will be telling to say the least.
Speaking of our pass rush, someone asked Spikes on Twitter that question-
@TakeoSpikes51 "good job last night. Was the pass rush vanilla on purpose for preseason?"
Takeo Spikes -- "We'll let the dawgs out on Sundays."
http://twitter.com/TakeoSpikes51/status/3344394722
I'm getting the funny feeling that this competition will go into the regular season.
-Shaun will have good games, then some really bad games, and Singletary might reach his limit and throw Alex in for 2 games to see what he can do. -Or it could totally be vice-versa if Alex somehow wins the competition.
I'm not putting any money into either until the Dallas game when these guys (yet alone the entire team) should have all the rust knocked off of them.
Question for Matt & Comment crew: 49ers may have riches at receiver. Bears are lacking. Do the Bears have anyone we might trade for in our areas of weakness?
Are you trying to earn the job of Smith’s agent? Ummmm...great QB's have been throwing to where the receiver will be for decades. Farve, Montana, Young, Marino, all the Manning family, and just about every decent QB in NFL history. If you wait for the receiver to get open see; Orton, Kyle, for the type of play you get. I think you need to revisit the “are you kidding me” comment. GO LOOK IN THE MIRROR and give us a break on the biased comments. By the way Haurd looked better than Smith and he has barely taken in reps in camp 11 on 11. If Smith were the second coming you would think he could out shine a life long backup.
Matt,
If Alex plays good on saturday do you think he could win the job? or Shaun going to start the season for us? Maybe Hill will start it out for us and alex will take over later in the season.
anthony
Is this debate even relevant? The best player for the position will start, regardless who the player is and what any of the fans think about said player. Since the decision is in the hands of Singletary, not us, what's the point of arguing over this? His decision will be the decider, and it's what he sees in the players, not what us fans see, that will be the deciding factor.
We should keep in mind that Hill is becoming a better QB in this competitive situation. Smith is improving in leaps and bounds. Why would Sing want to end this dynamic at this point? From what can be seen at this point Hill gives us a better chance to win on opening day. Smith, if he can keep his growth curve up, would give us a better chance to win play-off games. We'll need real zone stretching lasers against great defenses not rainbows, or Gore will get stuffed. Instead of being partisan for either we need to be rooting for both.
There's a reason Smith wasn't a 3rd round, as P in HI mentions. He has a big league arm and smarts. The 9ers have three under-performing 1st rounders whose talent was dissipated by lack of continuity and poor coaching. Smith, who once again is making strides, Davis, who could finally have an all-pro year, and Lawson who has been reduced to being tentative when he needs to be sudden. If Sing can get these three to play to their potential, we make the playoffs.
...am in this cuz i wnt the niners to win super bowls...
.....We all know S.Hill is an average QB that can't win big games....its not his fault, he just does not have the tools......
A.Smith is my main man since college.....We might disagree on this but i know he can win big games.....he has the tools, we all saw it when Norv was here, we all saw something* even though limited and not consistence - we all saw a young QB that had the goods and possibility to be better....
I just can't see Hill getting any better than he his.....sure he can win those regular season games but no way this guy defeats the eagles, cowboys, steelers etc during the playoffs.....
....I am cool with Hill starting if A.Smith does not play better than he did FIRST PRESEASON game but we should be fair when we critic A.Smith and not forget to mention THIS WAS HIS FIRST GAME SINCE.......
Next topic -Bill Rentmeester FB claimed off waivers!?
I think Singletary is definately getting what he intended out of this competition. Its been a foregone conclusion that S.Hill is the starter since the end of last season, in my opinion. But the competition is pushing both to show how much 1st string quality each really possess. While both are getting better, Hill is ready to win now.
To those who say Hill is no better than a 2nd/3rd stringer, could you please substantiate that with some stats? I'm really trying to see this thing objectively.
Yea! Two short passes and had more yardage than Smith had! You're always attacking MM's synopsis of what he sees, but you're a BIGTIME CRY BABY everytime somebody doesn't put Smith in the category of Montana and Young! You're the MOST BLINDED commenter on MM's blog! Smith looked just like he's always looked! Uncomfortable in the pocket! Looking at who's coming at him instead of going thru his progressions! Throwing the ball all over the place when a receiver is WIDE OPEN! His TD throw to a WIDE OPEN Miller was turned into a great catch because Miller grabbed the ball 2" off the ground! REAL GOOD NFL QB's lead the reciever even before he makes his break or becomes open on long passes! Smith WAITS! Get it "WAITS" for the reciever to break open then he throws the ball. That's why you never know if Smith will miss the reciever or throw an interception!
God you make the MOST IGNORANT, STUPID, NO KNOWLEDGE comments on the Blog!
And Matt! Don't send me his email address!! I don't write to first graders who cry in their milk!
Question: If Alex plays good on saturday do you think he could win the job?
My response: He could win the job, sure. As long as Singletary has yet to make a decision, anything can happen. But I think Alex is going to have to play very well, and Hill might have to struggle. Even if that were the case, I'm sure the coach would want to see Alex back it up with another good showing the following week. --Matt M.
How could you say Hill can't win "big games"?! The guy has had some gutsy performances for us and has pulled out some nice wins with some big plays! What games are you watching??? Are you kidding me??? Alex Smith has all the tools.....EXCEPT the ones between his ears, the ones that win games!! You cannot hold the ball for 8 seconds while you wait for your WRs to get 10 yards separation every single play!!! What more is there to it??!! This isn't 10-banana playground football!! The guy still has not got the memo that this isn't Mountain West anymore and he doesn't have 8 seconds to throw!! And please, enough about this '06 hall of fame season he had....even his numbers in 06 are sub par by NFL standards. The guy just does not have "IT", plain and simple. He should've never been a 1st round pick or at very best late 1st, but we got stuck with the worst year ever to have the #1 overall, we got stuck with him cuz we couldn't trade out, and we got screwed. Simple as that. Sugar coat it any way you want, the guy is no NFL QB. Maybe an average 3rd stringer, but that's it. Huard will be our #2. Or SHOULD be. Time to start letting it go with Alex, it's almost a done deal.
That said, Aaron Rogers sure had a great performance in his game yesterday. Looks like he's picking up right where he left off last year, with big throws.
God we got screwed!
GREAT REPLY!!! By the way, somebody tell me who didn't pick Aaron Rogers!? And who stuck us with Smith? I mean how could Aaron be such a polished NFL QB and Smith....well...Smith be what he is?
When will they acknowledge it? Shaun Hill is the starter, and they know it. It's great that Alex is throwing the ball so well, but this is SHill's team, for reasons that were obvious as recently as Friday night, when Alex muffed a simple screen pass just because he was rushed.
Huard looked good, maybe as good as or better than Alex. Nate Davis is still an unknown, but let's not turn loose of him until we are sure he can't be the answer.
Let's trade Alex, and start Hill with Huard and Davis in reserve.
Perfectly put!
Poetic and prophetic.
And our screwdriver is now comfy in the Rockies as DC.
...would be nice if you could mention one big game S.Hill has won a niner?.....
HaikenEdge & Hack are both right! It's too early to name the starter right now. The 49ers just had their 1st pre-season game & you guys have decided that it's Hill already? No way! You let this competition continue & keep both these QB's on their edge. Bottom line is they both need to get ALOT better from what I saw Friday night. The same can go for the frickin' PASS RUSH.
I'd be fine if Hill went into the season as #1. He probably deserves it and I like his story about being an underdog who waited and worked and took his advantage of his chance.
I assume Singletary has taken his stance of no one is in the lead to get the most out of the two quarterbacks. Great motivational tool.
If Smith somehow wins the job, good luck to him. But even if he emerges as a better quarterback, even if it is as a backup, then good for the 49ers.
I believe BOTH will start this season due to injuries, so we'll need both to stay healthy.
I understand where you're coming from but I have watched the game 4 times and Shaun made only one bad play when he hung on to the ball too long. Besides that his 2 throws to V.D were perfect and the scramble was on the money.
Smith looked ok... but out off all the snaps he took I didn't see one really good throw. His TD was handed to him and Morgan saved him on two occasions.
Just sayin...
Hi Matt: great work on the analysis of the game.
For Alex, i thought Johnson(the QB coach) had worked on the basics of QB. From my view, Alex is still "antsy" and "hurried". on the screen pass which was thrown with two pass rushers, it perfectly illustrates what he is missing from the QB position, which is "guts" and "cool". the pass was nowhere near the RB.
Overall, i think the offense is farther along than the defense. there is pressure anywhere along the D-line.
If you look at the replay again,the one play that everyone is saying that Hill made a bad play was when he looked towards Morgan(I think nit was WR Morgan on the left side) and he expected Morgan to read blitz and turn around and look for the ball. Hill started to throw and then held the ball ,looking directly at Morgan,waiting. Morgan kept running his deep route. To me it looks like Morgan was at fault for not reading the defense as well as Hill did. It is the WR's job to read the defense and adjust his route. Hill was doing the right thing ,looking and waiting for Morgan. Hill had plenty of time IF Morgan turned around as expected. When Morgan kept running,Hill was put in a very poor position and couldn't really even throw the ball away.
And besides,the next play Hill picked up the 1st down anyway,so if he did make a mistake,he certainly made up for his ONLY mistake.
If smith was in and he lost all that yardage on a bad play(if it was his fault or the WR's),the Niners would have wound up punting.That's the difference,Hill moves the team consistently and Smith does not.
P. in Hawaii | August 16, 2009 12:44 PM | Reply Aloha Matt;
If Alex Smith had been a third round draft pick, we would not be having this conversation, he would have been let go long ago. All the talk of Alex's potential sounds great for guy coming out of school, but like it or not Alex has a body of work to look at and He is what he is
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Kelvin | August 16, 2009 11:30 AM | Hill needs to be the starter. People talk about how Smith has all the "tools" but if you don't have "it" you just don't! I am a long time niners fan and I am pulling for Smith a lot. We all want him to succeed but he just doesn't have "it". I don't see it. He looks hesitant and he always has.
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LodiGrapePicker | August 16, 2009 12:06 PM | I believe that Singletary prefers Hill as the starting QB, but the Niner organization "in general" really want Smith to be the starter, in part to justify the waste of the #1 pick. QB ranking should be Hill, Huard, Smith.
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gw2 | August 16, 2009 8:45 PM | When will they acknowledge it? Shaun Hill is the starter, and they know it. It's great that Alex is throwing the ball so well, but this is SHill's team, for reasons that were obvious as recently as Friday night, when Alex muffed a simple screen pass just because he was rushed.
Huard looked good, maybe as good as or better than Alex. Nate Davis is still an unknown, but let's not turn loose of him until we are sure he can't be the answer.
Let's trade Alex, and start Hill with Huard and Davis in reserve.
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BennyBlanco | August 17, 2009 9:27 AM
Smith looked ok... but out off all the snaps he took I didn't see one really good throw. His TD was handed to him and Morgan saved him on two occasions.
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Glad to see that most Niner's fans are finally seeing this situation clearly !!! (as shown by the above copied posts).
We know that the locked in starter on any NFL team usually plays about one series in the 1st preseason game and then sits down and lets the other QB's show what they can do. That is what Sing did last Fri. Hill,the locked in starter,played one series until the offense scored. Then Smith and Huard played and showed clearly that huard is vastly superior to smith and should be the backup.
I think the front office want Smith to at least hang around as the backup BUT if Huard outplays him that badly again this week and the next,it will be hard for sing not to do the right thing and put the better player in as the backup (Huard).
And Davis is the only one on the roster that can be the franchise QB of the future. Alex does not have "it" and it seems never will come close to having "it". We know Davis has "it" but need to see him prove it in the NFL. If Davis shows half of his potential in the NFL,then I see no place for Smith on this team unless it is at future 3rd stringer behind Davis and Hill. If for some strange reason,Davis flops in the NFL,like Smith has,thenwe will need another prospect for that future franchise QB,and Smith will still be the odd man out,
imho.
http://www.knbr.com/common/global_audio/201/11227.mp3