Floyd Mayweather is either very brave or very nuts. In his first post-retirement fight on Saturday night he's going against Juan Manuel Marquez one of the five or so best fighters in the world.

In case you don't know Marquez, he fought Manny Pacquiao twice -- once to a draw, once losing a controversial decision. He is a competent boxer, a big hitter and he takes a good shot. In other words he's a tough guy with skills.

Traditionally in the sport of boxing great champions fight cream puffs in their first fight after retirement -- 21 months in Mayweather's case. Time away from the ring makes a fighter -- even Mayweather -- less sharp in a sport where you have to be very sharp to survive.

So as I say he's either brave or nuts. Or maybe it's something else. Mayweather owes money all over the place and I believe he wants to make a killing -- money, not homicide -- quickly and in a big way right away. Therefore Marquez.

In spite of whatever disadvantages Mayweather may have, I'm picking him to win. He is bigger than Marquez and that is significant. It is unclear if Marquez will carry his punch up to welterweight, although from everything I understand this is not a regular welterweight fight at 147 pounds. It's at the curious weight of 144.

I don't believe Mayweather will knock out Marquez because he does not like to trade punches. He'll outbox him and frustrate him and maybe cut him.

He'll win a decision and then we'll wait for him to fight Pacquiao, a fight he ought to win.