Ira Miller and I spoke an hour ago about the upcoming game between the 49ers and Packers.
Cohn: Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers play against each other Sunday. Did the 49ers make a mistake drafting Smith instead of Rodgers?
Miller: Yeah, but they would have made a mistake no matter who they drafted because they couldn't develop him. The big mistake wasn't which quarterback. It was not having a plan to get him developed. I thought at the time Rodgers was a much better choice for a number of reasons. He played in a pro-style offense so there was less to teach him and that was significant because he was coming to a crap team. His arrogance would have served him well because he would be better able handle the situation; he's tougher and thicker skinned than Smith. He's the fourth-ranked passer in league now but I'm not sure he could have survived the way Smith was handled. Obviously, the 49ers would have ruined whoever they had.
Cohn: Which is the better quarterback right now?
Miller: That's a silly question. Aaron Rodgers is a fine young quarterback and he really has only one major issue. He tends to hold the ball too long. He takes way too many sacks, not all the fault of his offensive line. He has a really good arm and a good head on his shoulders from playing the game.
Cohn: Compare him to Smith.
Miller: Rodgers has a better arm, better instincts. The issue with Smith remains - I know he's a bright guy; we heard all those stories when he came out of college how he graduated in 3 weeks. But he doesn't seem to have football instincts. He doesn't anticipate things as well as Rodgers. One excuse is that he hasn't been the No. 1 quarterback that long. I don't know. I just know he doesn't throw the ball soon enough. A receiver doesn't stay open in the NFL for long. You've got to trust he'll be open and where he'll be. If you wait to see him get open, by the time the ball gets there chances are he won't be open anymore. Windows open and close quickly. In fairness to Smith, he was handled all wrong. We know the issues with Nolan when he got hurt. The worst thing the 49ers did for him was he seemed to make progress his 2nd season. Then Norv Turner leaves and instead of getting the very best coordinator for their $24 million investment, they went out on the street corner and said, "Who's the next guy?" It's like they went out and got someone looking for a bus. The biggest thing was not getting a decent replacement for Norv. It's like you buy a Renoir and put it in the driveway and it rains and the paint runs. Jim Hostler, was that his name?
Cohn: Who will win the game?
Miller: The Packers will win. They're the better team and they have the better quarterback.
Cohn: Will it be close?
Miller: It shouldn't be but the 49ers have played close games against better teams. It shouldn't be close.
Cohn: Are the Packers an elite team?
Miller: No. They're upper middle of the pack. They improved their defense tremendously with Dom Capers this year. They can't protect the passer. They're the worst in the league at giving up sacks. I think Rodgers is a little gun shy playing behind that line. I don't like how long he holds onto the ball sometimes. He's been sacked 41 times in 9 games. That's way a lot. The average is 21 sacks per team and he's been sacked 41 times himself. But he's accurate and he gets the ball downfield and he doesn't throw a lot of interceptions. I think holding the ball too long is something Mike McCarthy can coach out of him.
Cohn: Is there anything else to say about the game?
Miller: There's still the overall issue of the 49ers not being very good. Singletary made it clear he wants to be a running team. You take out those couple of 60-yard touchdown runs by Frank Gore and they haven't run very well. Their passing game is basically Vernon Davis. Their wide receivers have 3 TD catches among them. Their offensive line is not very good.
Cohn: I want to look back at last week. You said the Bears would beat the 49ers because Jay Cutler is better than Alex Smith.
Miller: I don't know if anyone is better, but Cutler certainly was worse, just awful. He never was that bad when he played for Shanahan. You've got to look at the coaching.
Cohn: Let's talk about the Raiders.
Miller: Lets' not. There's really nothing to talk about. It's the same story week after week, year after year. They will win the occasional game. It's like me. I broke 80 last week for the 5th time in my life. That doesn't make me Tiger Woods. The Raiders will win the occasional game but that doesn't make them the 1984 49ers. There's no direction no plan no hope.
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