Most of the state may boycott but it is Election Day for the state budget deal. It seems pretty clear that all but one of the six ballot measures will fail. As we've written on the editorial page, we think that's a worse scenario than if they pass. But the debate is done, so here are my predictions for today:
Prop. 1A: Fails with 58 percent opposed.
Prop. 1B: Fails with 52 percent opposed (and couldn't pass without Prop. 1A anyway).
Prop. 1C: Fails with 52 percent opposed.
Prop. 1D: Fails with 55 percent opposed
Prop. 1E: Fails with 55 percent opposed
Prop. 1F: Passes with 75 percent in favor.
Turnout will be less than 25 percent statewide, slightly
above 30 percent in
What do you think?
-- Jim Sweeney
Jim:
My numbers are similar, albeit with higher statewide TO. I have TO at 31.6$ of Reg'd Voters. Perhaps a tad high, but somewhere between 27% to 32% seems like a reliable range. Here are the rest from my model of CA Special Election TO:
Prop 1A 58% No
Prop 1B 55% No
Prop 1C 64% No
Prop 1D 56% No
Prop 1E 57% No
Prop 1F 76% YES