One of the talking
points in every
Once in a while,
someone even offers a bit of anecdotal evidence.
Finally, we have
some hard numbers. Researchers at the Public Policy Institute of California
released a study Friday showing that low-income residents are leaving the state
at a faster pace than rich residents.
The research doesn't
undermine the high-tax argument entirely, but it certainly marginalizes it.
Using data from the
U.S. Census and the state Department of Finance for 2004 through 2007, the PPIC
study found that poorer residents are twice as likely to leave the state as
more affluent residents.
PPIC said that 1.73 of the state's poorest households
(those with annual incomes of $22,000 or less, placing them in the bottom 20
percent) left California for every arrival in that income range.
On the opposite end
of the spectrum, 1.16 households in the top quintile (annual incomes of
$110,000 or more) left for every upper-income person who arrives. At the very
top of the scale (incomes of more than $200,000 a year), 1.09 leave for every
arrival.
Obviously, the state's
financial picture would be better if the upper-income numbers were less than
one, but they're leaving at a far slower pace than poor families.
Where do they go? States
without incomes taxes, right?
Three of the five
most popular destinations are
-- Jim Sweeney
This study is skewed because wages are likely to be much higher (for an equivalent job) for those leaving than for those entering because wages are higher in California due to the high cost of living. Also, unless the study is limited to those voluntarily leaving (as opposed to transferred) the numbers are meaningless since low income folks do not in general get transferred. Lies,damned lies and statistics.
Of course low income families are leaving at a higher rate. Many are illegals going South, or to another state looking for work.
The high achievers leaving are the ones that pay taxes,
and create the jobs.
The bottom line, no matter how you try to spin the numbers is, more people are leaving the state than coming here.
That is natural. Illegal aliens are taking all the lower paying jobs so Americans are leaving! There just arent many college educated illegals entering the state to take the jobs of those who make 100,000 or more and unfortunately illegals cant become firemen or police who both earn over 100,000.
What is needed in California is an exodus of misleading messengers who attempt to include those who do not pay taxes (under $22,000.) with those who do, in order to make a bad point about not paying taxes. In a class in logic this person would receive an F for confusing apples with empty baskets. When will we have enough of this endless propaganda flushed upon us from the Press Democrat's editorial pages?
Your ad hominem attack is more focused than your reasoning.
Perhaps you can try again and explain why you think it’s illegitimate for researchers to compare the rate of exodus by people without a tax-incentive to those who might have such an incentive. As I noted, even people in the top bracket are leaving faster than they're arriving, which isn't good for the state. They just aren't leaving nearly as fast as those who don’t pay incomes taxes to begin with.
-- Jim Sweeney
Well, I just moved in to CA. California appears to be in decline, though it's still nice. Compare the rust belt decline and it's easy to choose CA.
That said something here just isn't right. Can't put my finger on it. People buy 600k homes and shop at trader joes because Ralphs is too pricy.
Back east things are moving. Young people are forging careers. People have money to spend, even if it's on crap. People here seem very poor, even those in 600k houses.
You might have a point about the effect of immigration on the economy, but then again, I do wish that people wouldn't jump to try attach the illegal alien tag to every social problem.
The illegal thing may indeed effect some jobs, but probably not as many as you think. You may assume that people are illegal just because they're foreignors.
The other thing that you might consider is that California has ridden that anti-immigrant argument into the ground with such vigor that they have effectively chased many of them away. This could also cause an economic ripple from the loss of viable workers in certain sectors.
I don't totally disagree with you, it has to be a factor.It is also fairly obvious that the situation is more complex than the anti-immigration lobby would lead you to think.Not all bilinguals are immigrants and not all immigrants are illegals.
We are often mistaken for immigrants just because we speak Spanish. I am a fourth generation Spanish-Californian and I have been spat at and called "wetback" by people who carried around an anti-immigrant bias.
I just recently left CA after 23 years living in the state. I must admit, I miss the beauty of Sonoma County. Income taxes and poor health care were strong factors in my decision to leave.
In the end however, I didn't want to leave but now that I have, I never want to come back. I make less money but take home more due to lower health car cost and no income taxes in my state. But that's not the primary reason. I've learned there is a better way to live. After leaving, I've discovered that CA is simply too divided and is choking itself. It's a state where too many are just focused on ME and not on making a better life for all. There is no planning because everyone has seems to alterior motives so there is not trust in the process. The government is also disfunctional and has lost the trust of it's citizens.
The net/net is a poor quality of life for everyone. You live in one of the most beautiful states but nobody can enjoy it because parks are closing, infrastructure is crumbling, schools are a failing, and the population has to work harder and harder to support a high cost of living - compounded by high taxes, high health care costs, and high cost of housing.
Hopefully, someday it will get better.
I don't think that this study -- or my summary -- deal with illegal immigration. at least not beyond the margins. PPIC is looking at census and DMV data to track migratory patterns and income levels for people moving in and out of the state, i.e. voluntary moves, job transfers, etc. DMV, which uses driver's licenses to determine where people moved from and where they move to, doesn't issue licenses to illegal immigrants.
As someone watched growth and development destroy everything I loved about California this study gives me hope. Anything that can increase the exodus leaves a little more room on the beach for me.
I'm new to California as well and though the state has more than its fair share of issues, we still like it so far. My wife and I don't miss the winters of the midwest and New England. We are actually glad the state is undergoing so much turmoil because eventually it will have to resolve itself. For us it means much lower real estate prices from which we can benefit. The state definitely needs to work on becoming more efficient and cutting cost. The real estate (debt) boom and bust caused a lot of issue and only efficiency will help the state overcome this. After that the state must work on attracting new businesses by cutting both business and personal income taxes. The state needs so much reform at the legislature and senate. California is only the first to have these issues. They are popping up in other states across the country as tax revenues for states continue to decline.
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