Jim.Sweeney: November 2008 Archives

    Post-election surprise

    It was widely reported -- including here -- that Carole Migden was bound for a $132,000-a-year sinecure on the state Integrated Waste Management Board after losing her state Senate seat to Mark Leno in the Democratic primary in February.

    Well, it turns out the seat is going to another out-of-work senator, Sheila Kuehl, a Southern California Democrat who was unseated by term limits. No word yet on what precipitated a change. Or if there is another appointment in the offing for Migden.

    Kuehl, by the bye, has been the primary sponsor of efforts to create a single-payer health care system in California. In a posting at the California Progress Report, a liberal blog, she said she would be passing the torch on single-payer to Leno, who will be sworn into the Senate next week.

    Do you think Leno will be any more succesful in passing single-payer than Kuehl has been?

    -- Jim Sweeney

     

    A soft landing at a dumping ground

    Wiggins to Chesbro to Migden.

    It doesn't roll off the tongue quite like Tinker to Evers to Chance. And don't look for this combination to be immortalized alongside Montana and Clark and Young and Rice.

    But it's looking like a sure thing in the state solid waste trifecta.

    Wiggins is Pat Wiggins. During a two-year break between her last term in the state Assembly and her current term in the state Senate, the Santa Rosa Democrat was appointed to the state Intergrated Waste Management Board.

    When she left the board, Wesley Chesbro, a former state senator (and before that a waste board member), was appointed to one of two vacancies. In a couple weeks, Chesbro, D-Arcata, must give up his waste board seat (again) to take up residence in the state Assembly next month.

    Which brings us to Migden. That would be state Sen. Carole Migden, who lost her re-election bid in the Democratic primary in June. Her term ends in two weeks and it's widely expected that she will be appointed to the waste board.

    The board oversees California's recycling efforts and enforces a state mandate to reduce landfill dumping by 50 percent. Board members are appointed by the governor, the Assembly speaker and the Senate Rules Committee, making the board a popular landing spot for jobless politicos. The current board chairwoman is Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's former scheduling secretary.

    Members are paid $117,800 a year and apparently have ample time to run for office.

    -- Jim Sweeney



    Playing with fire on Prop. 8

    The Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors on Wednesday joined the list of challengers to Proposition 8, the ballot measure that amends the state constitution to ban same-sex marriage.

    The board joins supervisors in San Francisco and Santa Clara counties in a lawsuit against Prop. 8. Democrats in the state Legislature and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger also have called on the court to step in on the grounds that Prop. 8 revised rather than amended the constitution, which requires legislative as well as voter approval.

    This is a risky gambit, for the plaintiffs and for the court.

    Most voters aren't versed in the finer points of constitutional law, such as revisions vs. amendments to the constitution. They do have a sense of fair play that could mean a backlash, perhaps even from some opponents of Prop. 8, if the measure is overturned after being approved by the voters.

    There's plenty of precedent for overturning ballot measures. Courts have rejected open primaries, campaign finance measures and a rather sweeping consumer-protection law in recent years. But none of those generated the political heat that Prop. 8 has.And neither term limits nor Prop. 13 was ruled a revision, so it may be tough to sell Prop. 8 as such.

    On the court, two justices are up for retention elections in 2010. One is Chief Justice Ron George, who wrote the same-sex marriage ruling, which infuriated many conservatives. The other is Ming Chin, who dissented. Both George and Chin faced retention challenges in 1998, led by critics of a decision that overturned a state law requiring parental consent before a minor undergoes an abortion. Both formed campaign committees, raised money and fought off their opponents, which is rarely necessary in California judicial races.

    George probably will have to do that again. Although he's a former prosecutor whose rise on the bench has been orchestrated by Republican governors, it's conservatives who will be looking to unseat him, much as they did in 1986 with Chief Justice Rose Bird and two associate justices appointed by Democrats.

    This isn't to suggest that Prop. 8 should stand unchallenged. But it would better political sense for advocates of same-sex marriage to try to repeal it with another ballot measure in 2010.

    A comparison of election results from 2000 and 2008 shows that support for same-sex marriage increased from 39 percent to 48 percent. The sad fact is opponents of Prop. 8 may have defeated it with a better campaign. Crowds have turned out to protest, but where were those crowds before the election? There was next to no effort to counter the most effective pro-Prop. 8 ads, which claimed negative impacts on churches and schools. And instead of gay families, the campaign relied on politicians such as Sen. Dianne Feinstein and schools chief Jack O'Connell to make its case.

    A court fight only compounds the mistakes of the campaign. Supporters of same-sex marriage need to convince the electorate.

    -- Jim Sweeney


    Ready for the next campaign?

    One recurring theme during the closing days of the campaign and the first few days after the election was that a newly minted generation of political junkies would suffer withdrawal. Not to worry. Less than a week has passed, and we've got the first handicap report on California's 2010 gubernatorial election to dissect.

    And why not? Some stores have been set up for Christmas since the Fourth of July.

    Michael Rothfeld rounds up the likely field of candidates in today's Los Angeles Times. Alas, no great surprises.

    Among the Democrats mentioned are Jerry Brown, John Garamendi, Gavin Newsom (though his "Howard Dean moment" on same-sex marriage might hurt him in the general election, it is pointed out), Antonio Villaraigosa and Steve Westley (who also has been mentioned for an Obama administration post). The wild card, of course, is Dianne Feinstein. If she runs, chances are everyone else is busy. Errands to run. Hair to wash. Lawn to mow. No time for a campaign.

    There aren't many household names among the Republicans -- Meg Whitman, Steve Poizner and Campbell. But Whitman, the founder of eBay, is a self-made billionaire. Poizner, the state's insurance commissioner, has deep pockets, too. Campbell has been on the faculty at Cal and Stanford, served five terms in Congress and was state finance director under Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

    I think Feinstein takes a pass, and we see a free-for-all among the Democrats. Whitman seems to me to have the inside for the Republicans - money, huge business success, female. What do you think? Or were you hoping to get through Thanksgiving (or at least Veterans Day) without thinking about the next election?

    -- Jim Sweeney

     


    Some random thoughts on the election

    Measure Q: I told several people that I thought Q would fail, largely because it wouldn't do well in Marin County. Moreover, I said I expected Marin voters to give much stronger support to Prop. 1A (bonds for a high-speed train to L.A.) than to a local rail measure. Well, I certainly was wrong. Support in Marin increased since 2006, and, as a result, this time the rail measure passed. I was right that Prop. 1A would do better - 65 percent vs. 62.6 percent. But 2.4 percentage points doesn't exactly equate to "much stronger." In Sonoma County, by the way, Prop. 1A lagged well behind Q - 64 percent vs. 73.5 percent.

     

    Prop. 8: Election results don't become final for about a month after Election Day, as late absentees are counted and the vote is canvassed. During that time, I would imagine that there will be a rush, much as there was right before the election, for gay couples to marry. That's going to be an extra crunch for county clerks, who will be wrapping up the election at the same time they have a big demand for marriage licenses and civil weddings. I also imagine we'll see a court fight over the validity of the marriages conducted in the six months between the state Supreme Court ruling and whatever date Prop. 8 takes effect.

     

    Rohnert Park: Interesting mixed message in the results here. Measure L, the sewer rate rollback, passed, yet the candidate most closely associated with it (Dawna Gallagher) finished last in the City Council election. We'll probably get a picture very quickly of whether the sponsors were right that the city could meet all its financial obligations, including paying for the regional treatment plant and The Geysers pipeline, with lower rates. A major argument of Measure L's sponsors was that the city had been adding a sewer line to promote growth. Yet the new council majority may be considerably friendlier to development proposals than the majority that has been turned out.

    It also will be interesting to see if the new council revisits the issue of retirement benefits for the Public Safety Department. Joe Callinan and Gina Belforte were critical of the negotiations that resulted in a two-tier retirement system, which reduced the city's long-term liability.

     

    Board of Supervisors: I haven't got an up-to-date voter registration breakdown of Sonoma County by supervisorial district, but I'm surprised to see that there were far more votes cast in the 1st district (Valerie Brown vs. Will Pier) than either of the other races. Pier quietly put together a very serious challenge to an incumbent supervisor, but attention was focused on the contests between Shirlee Zane and Sharon Wright in Santa Rosa and Efren Carrillo and Rue Furch in the west county. The numbers will change as the remaining absentees are counted, but probably not the proportions. For now, there are 40,500 ballots in the 1st district, 31,000 in the 3rd and 34,000 in the 5th.

     

    Ballot fatigue: It's not unusual to see a big drop-off from the top of the ballot to the bottom, but not this time, at least in Sonoma County. There were 196,300 votes cast for president and 180,671 for Measure Q, the last item on the ballot. What else were voters intense about? Prop. 8, for sure. There were 194,000 ballots cast.  And Proposition 2 (chickens and cages), with 190,300 ballots.

     

    -- Jim Sweeney  

     




POLL OF THE MOMENT

Should Santa Rosa allow In-N-Out Burger to build a restaurant with a drive-through window on County Center Drive?

View results